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The kiwi broke to fresh 3 year highs. Will it continue uphill? NBNZ Business Confidence and the rate decision are the major events to look up. Here is an outlook on the major events this week and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

At the end of last week The New Zealand dollar surged in light of a weak US dollar. The Kiwi rose nearly a five -month record against the greenback following President Obama’s calls to restrain spending to reduce America’s huge debt problem. New Zealand bonds have been rapidly bought up by overseas investors which helped the Kiwi recover from its drop at the beginning of the week.

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

NZD USD Chart April 25-29

  1. NBNZ Business Confidence: Wednesday, 4:00. The National Bank of New Zealand Business Confidence survey plunged to -8.7 pts from 34.5 in the previous month following Feb 22nd earthquake in Christchurch. This major fall is equivalent to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Another decrease is predicted.
  2. Rate Decision: Wednesday, 22:00. The central bank of New Zealand cut interest rates 50 basis points to 2.5% to raise confidence in the economy following the major earthquake in Christchurch. Governor Alan Bollard said in a statement that additional steps will be taken as the full impact if the disaster is revealed. The central bank forecasted a weakening in economic growth through the first half of the year, but this would steadily improve thanks to the large reconstruction program by 2012. The same rate is expected now.
  3. Trade Balance: Thursday: 23:45. New Zealand reached a trade surplus of 194M in February following a deficit of 3M thanks to higher dairy prices, low currency, and increasing demand from China helping to boost exports. The surplus figure was lower than the 238M expected but still impressive. Trade balance Surplus is expected to widen by 34M to 204M.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical  Analysis

The kiwi had a rough start to the week, falling to support at 0.7825 (discussed last week) before climbing back up and eventually breaking to 3 year highs, closing at 0.8014.

Looking up, there are only two lines in chartered territory: the first is 81, which was a swing high back in 2007. The second is the record all time high of 82.15 last seen more than 3 years ago. Beyond this line, its unconquered ground, with a barrier probably at 83.

Looking down, the previous peak of November, 0.7975, is now the first line of support. 100 pips lower, we encounter 78.75, which was an area of struggle just now.

78.25 is an important cushion after having a very strong role just now. It’s followed by  0.7750. This was a peak resistance earlier in the year, remains a minor support line on the way down.

Moving lower, the next line is 0.7655, which is a stronger line, after capping the pair in October and also a few months ago. The last line for now  is only at 0.7523, which is now only a minor line, after being shattered a few weeks ago.

I remain bullish on NZD/USD.

The break and the close above 0.80 is a bullish sign for the New Zealand dollar and the recovering economy. Ben Bernanke might help the pair by pushing the dollar lower in the rate decision.

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