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The kiwi lost ground after a tough struggle. The upcoming week consists of PPI and the Annual Budget Release as the major market movers. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

New Zealand house price index improved 1.1% in April   following 0.5% rise in the previous month. This is the third consecutive increase indicating possible recovery trend in the housing market following the Earthquake in Christchurch.

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

 

  1. PPI: PPI output in the 4Q of 2010 increased by 0.2% and on a yearly base by 4.3%. Producer input prices climbed 0.9% and 4.4% YoY percent on the year. The increases were led by higher wholesale activity, livestock milk prices.  PPI input is predicted to climb by 0.6% while output by 0.5%.
  2. Annual Budget Release: Thursday, 3:00. New Zealand’s 2011 budget will center on improving New Zealand’s national reserves and reducing foreign debt. NZ government plans to cut operating spending to around NZ$800 million to NZ$900 million a year, from the current budget of NZ$1.1 billion.
  3. Visitor Arrivals: Thursday, 23:45. Visitor arrivals decreased sharply in March by 7.1% following the Earthquake in Christchurch. It is believed to further deteriorate before any expansion is seen. On a yearly base the number of visitors decreased by 11% however things are likely to improve in the third quarter of 2011.
  4. Credit Card Spending: Friday, 4:00. Am expansion of 1.7% in Credit card spending is witnessed at retail outlets in April. The rise was experienced in all sectors excluding services showing improvement in household confidence.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical  Analysis

The New Zealand dollar traded in a range, with the 0.7975 (discussed last week) capping the pair. Towards the end of the week, moves became more violent, and the pair eventually dropped lower, and bounced off the 0.7825 line to close at 0.7870.

Technical levels from top to bottom:

The all-time high of 0.8215 is naturally the highest point. The pair is now further away from this area. The 81 line, which was also a line of resistance now and also in the previous rise, remains strong resistance.

The previous post crisis high of 0.7975 remains an important line, remaining very distinctive, separating ranges. This was clearly seen for another week in a row. 100 pips lower, we meet 0.7875, which was support in 2010, is a pivotal line now.

0.7825 is important support after capping the pair at the beginning of the year, and working as support twice in the past month. This was tested just now on the fresh dollar storm.

0.7746 worked as support in November and as resistance in January and is minor support now. Stronger support is found at the 0.7655 peak seen in February.

0.7523 is a veteran resistance line, that worked as strong support in January and remains important. 0.74 was a line of support twice in during the fall and is the next line. The last line for now is the December trough of 0.7350.

I remain neutral on NZD/USD.

Despite the strength of the greenback and the falling prices of commodities, the economy in New Zealand is recovering nicely from the earthquakes, as seen in employment numbers. These forces are likely to balance each other.

Further reading:

 

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