The kiwi fell and jumped, but eventually finished in the same place. Will it pick a direction now? Westpac Consumer Sentiment is the major event this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD
Last week the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained rates at 2.50% despite the positive state of the NZ economy the RBNZ members are still worried about the European debt crisis situation which may badly affect global markets. Meantime REINZ house price index increased by 1.1% after 0.3% drop in the previous month. Will NZ continue to grow despite the current global situation?
Updates: The fresh fears about Europe send the kiwi down, but NZD/USD is still safe above the 0.7637 line. The temporary relief from Europe pushed the pair back above 0.7636, but the troubles remain. The Fed meeting is expected to provide no surprises. The kiwi is a risk currency that needs commodity fueling. When Bernanke didn’t provide this kind of material, NZD/USD dropped to support at 0.7550 before stabilizing. Also the drop of the euro weighed on the pair. Following the bad Italian auction, NZD/USD struggles with the 0.7550 line. The kiwi recovered thanks to good US figures and some relief in Europe after the big falls.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Mon.-Thu.New Zealand’s consumer confidence remained flat in the third quarter reaching 112. The lack of growth may indicate the possible affect of global slowdown. But still, the reading is relatively optimistic, the highest since the third quarter of last year.
- FPI: Monday, 21:45. The Food Price Index declined 1.3% in October after 1.0% drop in the previous month. The decrease was led by a 6.1% drop in the price of fruit and vegetables.
- OPEC Meetings Wednesday. According to hints made by the Iraqi Oil Minister, Abdul-Kareem Luaibi, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expected to cut oil output at its December 14 meeting inVienna,Austria. However contradicting rumors from industry observers claim that most Gulf Arab OPEC members will oppose to this cut since oil prices are well above $100 a barrel.
- Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 21:30. TheNew Zealand manufacturing index went below the 50 point line in October to 46.5 from50.5 in September indicating contraction. This is the lowest reading since June 2009 one of the possible causes for this decline is the Rugby World Cup distracting business and the slowdown on the construction sector.
* All times are GMT.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Kiwi/dollar traded in a narrow range throughout most of the week. It eventually dropped to the 0.7637 line (mentioned last week) before jumping back to range and closing at 0.7751, a bit lower than last week.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
Note that some lines have been modified in the current ranges. 0.8165 provided support for the pair at several occasions, last seen in October. 81.10 switched positions from support in August to resistance later on and is a minor line on the way up.
0.8060 was resistance in October and support beforehand. The round number of 0.80 managed to cap the pair in November and remains of high importance, especially due to its psychological importance. Another round number, 0.79, is now minor resistance, after being approached in December.
0.7840 capped the pair in October and became much stronger in December, holding the range. 0.7723 proved to be a significant line – very distinct in separating ranges and the bottom border of the range.
0.7637 was a swing low in September and provided its strength in December as a swing low. 0.7550 now has a stronger role after stopping the fall o fthe kiwi. It had a similar role back in January.
0.7470 was the trough in October and was very strong support before 0.7550 was broken. It now switches to resistance. The fresh low of 0.7370 is a fresh minor line of support.
Further below, we reach lines last seen at the beginning of the year: 0.7340 worked as support at the end of 2010 and at the beginning of 2011. It had a similar role in March. 0.7250 is another minor cushion on the way down.
I remain bearish on NZD/USD
The rate cut in Australia and more signs of weakness from China can trigger a future rate cut in New Zealand as well. In addition, the troubles in Europe are far from over, and this certainly helps the US dollar against risk currencies such as the kiwi.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.