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The kiwi didn’t go too far in a very choppy week. Quarterly inflation are the major events awaiting us this week and they have a strong influence on interest rates. Here’s an  outlook  for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

Last week New Zealand retail sales volumes edged up more than expected in the fourth quarter amid an increase in food and energy sales during the Rugby World Cup. Retail sales climbed 2.2% in the fourth quarter after a revised increase of 2.4%, while a 1.2% rise was predicted. Meantime Core sales soared 2.9% in the fourth quarter way above the 0.7% gain predicted following a revised increase of 1.1% in the previous quarter. Let’s see what’s in store for us this week.

Updates: The Chinese move on the RRR helped the kiwi.  Hope for a deal on Greece sent the pair above 0.84, but when worries reemerged, it slipped back. The lack of excitement about the Greek deal weighs on the kiwi, that is floating lower. Also the absence of manufacturing growth in China (according to HSBC) weighs on the pair. The kiwi is rising gently in range. Risk appetite is felt as Greece is calm, for now.

NZD/USD  daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD/USD Chart February 20 24 2012

  1. PPI Input: Sunday, 21:45. Producer input prices increased 0.6 % in the third quarter, less than the 0.9% increase in the second quarter in line with predictions.  While the PPI output figures edged down sharply to 0.2% after 1.4% climb in the second quarter indicating inflation is declining. Both PPI input and PPI output are expected to rise by 0.5%.
  2. Inflation data: Tuesday, 2:00.New Zealand businesses lowered their inflation predictions for the fourth quarter to 2.8% from 2.9% in the previous quarter. Inflation rate is predicted to rise to 3.3% by September 2012.
  3. Credit Card Spending: Wednesday, 2:00.  New Zealanders consumers spent   5.9% more on credit and debit cards compared to a year earlier following 3.0% gain in the previous month suggesting better market activity .

* All times are GMT.

 NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar traded in a range between 0.8240 and 0.84, both mentioned  last week. 0.8340 served as pivotal line.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

 0.8765 was a high line during August and is close to the all time high. It’s followed by 0.8680 which was support on high ground and is minor now.

0.8620 is close by and also was support on high ground during the summer. 0.8573 was a stubborn line of resistance during August 2011 and remains of high importance.

0.8505 was a peak on the way up during July. The 0.84 line separated ranges in August 2011, and earlier served as support when the kiwi traded higher. A move higher in February 2012 eventually resulted in a significant drop.

0.8340 was a peak in September and now switches to stronger resistance after being a point of struggle in February 2012. It is weaker now after serving as a battleground. 0.8240 was a peak in October and also back in May 2011.  It proved its strength in January 2012 and will be tested again.

Moving lower, we find 0.8165. It provided support for the pair at several occasions, last seen in October. After being crossed on the way up, its strength is lower. 0.8110 switched positions from support in August to resistance later on and is a minor line, now on the way down.

0.8070 was resistance in October and support beforehand.. It was also tested in January.  The round number of 0.80 managed to cap the pair in November and remains of high importance, especially due to its psychological importance.

Another round number, 0.79, is now stronger resistance after capping a rise at the beginning of 2012. 0.7840 worked as cap for a range and earlier stopped the pair in October. It then became much stronger in December, holding the range. The pair approached in the last days of 2011, but couldn’t really challenge it.

0.7773 was the bottom border of a range at the beginning of 2012, and also in December. 0.77 provided support in December and is now minor support. 0.7637 was a swing low in September and provided its strength in December as a swing low. It is a still strong, after capping a recovery attempt in December.

0.7550 now has a stronger role after working as a very distinct line separating ranges.  It had a similar role back in January.

I am bearish on NZD/USD

Without too many critical figures in New Zealand, the focus is now on Europe. There are too many ominous signs that the Greek deal may be unraveling, and even in the best case scenario, things don’t look good.

Further reading:

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