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The New Zealand dollar retreated after 7 weeks of gains, as local worries, fear about China and dark clouds in Greece triggered a correction. Is this a change of trend? Retail sales and House price index are the major events awaiting us this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

Last week positive labor market data was published with an unexpected drop in New Zealand’s unemployment rate in the fourth quarter decreasing to 6.3% from 6.6%, better than the 6.5% predicted. Furthermore, Labor Cost Index improved by 0.7% in the last quarter from 0.5% gain in the third quarter. Will New Zealand continue ots recovery?

Updates: The kiwi moved mostly on news from Europe and enjoyed the  Greek austerity approval. The pair is struggling with 0.8340 once again. The monthly  REINZ HPI dropped sharply: 1.4%. Together with the  doubts about the Greek deal, the kiwi is pressured under 0.8340. Retail sales provided a positive surprise for the kiwi – they rose by 2.2% and core sales by 2.9%, much better than expected. These quarterly numbers sent the pair to tackle the 0.84 line once again. The gain in Australian jobs was countered by the fact that  the situation in Greece deteriorated. NZD/USD remains around 0.83, in range. The RBNZ said that GDP might be understated. Together with the  upcoming deal for Greece, the kiwi is higher once again.

NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD/USD Chart February 13 17 2012

  1. REINZ HPI: Mon-Sat. REINZ Housing Price Index dropped 0.1% in December after 1.1% gain in the previous month however real estate sales were up 20% compared to a year earlier suggesting improvement in the housing market.
  2. FPI  : Monday, 21:45.New Zealand’s  food price index increased 0.2% in December amid higher prices of fruit and vegetables. November registered a similar rise.
  3. Retail sales: Tuesday, 21:45. Retail sales surged in the third quarter due to tourists spending during the Rugby  World Cup. Sales edged up 2.2% following 1.0% gain in the previous quarter. This was the sharpest rise in four and a half years. Meanwhile core sales, excluding automobile sales and energy products, jumped 2.4% following a 1.1% gain in the second quarter indicating New Zealand economy is accelerating its recovery. Retail sales are expected to rise by 1.3% while Core sales are predicted to rise 1.1%.
  4. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 21:30. The New Zealand manufacturing sector edged up in December crossing the 50 point line closing 2011 with51.9 pts. This was the thirst expansion since March 2011.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar continued struggling. An attempt to move higher met the round 0.84 line (discussed last week) and the pair began falling from there, eventually settling at the 0.8240 line.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

We begin a bit lower this time. 0.8765 was a high line during August and is close to the all time high. It’s followed by 0.8680 which was support on high ground and is minor now.

0.8620 is close by and also was support on high ground during the summer. 0.8573 was a stubborn line of resistance during August 2011 and remains of high importance.

0.8505 was a peak on the way up during July. The 0.84 line separated ranges in August 2011, and earlier served as support when the kiwi traded higher. A move higher in February 2012 eventually resulted in a significant drop.

0.8340 was a peak in September and now switches to stronger resistance after being a point of struggle in February 2012. It is weaker now after serving as a battleground. 0.8240 was a peak in October and also back in May 2011.  It proved its strength in January 2012 and will be tested again.

Moving lower, we find 0.8165. It provided support for the pair at several occasions, last seen in October. After being crossed on the way up, its strength is lower. 0.8110 switched positions from support in August to resistance later on and is a minor line, now on the way down.

0.8070 was resistance in October and support beforehand.. It was also tested in January.  The round number of 0.80 managed to cap the pair in November and remains of high importance, especially due to its psychological importance.

Another round number, 0.79, is now stronger resistance after capping a rise at the beginning of 2012. 0.7840 worked as cap for a range and earlier stopped the pair in October. It then became much stronger in December, holding the range. The pair approached in the last days of 2011, but couldn’t really challenge it.

0.7773 was the bottom border of a range at the beginning of 2012, and also in December. 0.77 provided support in December and is now minor support. 0.7637 was a swing low in September and provided its strength in December as a swing low. It is a still strong, after capping a recovery attempt in December.

0.7550 now has a stronger role after working as a very distinct line separating ranges.  It had a similar role back in January.

I am bearish on NZD/USD

The focus moved from the potential QE3 in the US, which has small chances, to Chinese worries. In addition, the small gain in jobs in New Zealand casts a shadow. For now, pressures remain on NZD/USD.

Further reading:

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