NZD/USDreached highest levels since April thanks to Draghi. Will it push forward or is it a false break? NBNZ Business Confidence is the main event this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
Mario Draghi raised the hopes of a breakthrough in the debt crisis, and this gave a boost to the kiwi. The fate of the New Zealand dollar depends a lot on if he can deliver or not. Last week a welcome surprise from adjusted merchandise trade balance figures with an unexpected jump to NZ$331 million surplus in June after NZ$232 million surplus in May. The rise was much higher than the NZ$77 million estimated amid a 6.2% increase in exports. Will NZ economy continue to improve?
Updates: Building Consents was very strong, with a 5.7% gain. This represented a five-month high for the housing indicator. The kiwi continues to improve, as it edges towards the 0.81 line. NZD/USD was trading at 0.8094. NBNZ Business Confidence had a strong showing, climbing to 15.1 points. NZD/USD continues to test the 81 line, as the pair was trading at 0.8098. ANZ Commodity The kiwi gained some ground, crossing the 0.81 level. NZD/USD was trading at 0.8122. ANZ Commodity Prices will be released on Thursday. ANZ Commodity Prices declined by 0.5%. It was the fifth straight reading in the negative territory for the consumer indicator, which last posted a gain in February. NZD/USD was steady, trading at 0.8121.
- Building Consents: Sunday, 22:45.New Zealand home building consents plunged 7.1% in May, from 7.6% in April amid a drop in approvals for apartments, despite a rise in earthquake-related consents. Since the first earthquake on Sept 4 there have been close to 2,000Canterbury earthquake-related consents, totaling $428 million. That included 335 new dwellings, of which 149 were relocatable units.
- NBNZ Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:00.New Zealand business confidence was less positive in June dropping to 12.6 from27.1 in May. Only 12.6% of responders believe economic conditions will improve in the year ahead, down from 27% in May, while a net 21% of firms predict their own activity will improve, down 14% to 20%. The downward trend started in March raising concerns for a further deterioration.
- ANZ Commodity Prices: Thursday, 1:00.New Zealand commodity prices dropped to the lowest level in more than two years declining 2.4% in June after a 4.2% plunge in the previous month. These drops reflect Europe’s debt crisis negative effect on global prices. Dairy prices have fallen to their lowest level in 33 months, according to the ANZ index.
* All times are GMT.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Kiwi/$ struggled around the 0.7910 line (mentioned last week). It’s fate changed later on, as it made a big leap and was eventually capped by 0.8105.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
We begin from higher ground this week. 0.8470 was the swing high seen in February. 0.84 was resistance back in February 2012. 0.8320 was a wing high in April, just before the big dive.
0.8260 capped the pair during March, and is stubborn resistance. 0.8185 was resistance in the past and is now weaker.
0.8105 is the new peak reached in July 2012 and should be closely watched on any upside movement. 0.8075 was the peak in July 2012 and replaces other lines in this region. This is the highest in 3 months.
The round number of 0.80 managed to cap the pair in November and remains of high importance, especially due to its psychological importance. It was hit by the recent moves and somewhat weaker now.
Another round number, 0.79, is key resistance, after being a very distinct line separating ranges. It proved its strength also in June 2012. 0.7840 provided support for the pair several times during June 2012 and also worked as resistance back at the end of 2011.
The round number of 0.78 is significant support after working as such in July 2012. 0.7723 supported the pair back at the beginning of 2012 and also worked in the other direction in June 2012.
0.7620 provided support in May 2012 and is resistance once again, although weaker than in previous weeks. 0.7550 is resistance once again, even after the breakdown. It was a very distinct line separating ranges and had a similar role back in January.
Below, 0.7460 is significant support after working as support at the end of 2011 and also in May and June 2012. This is key support. 0.7370, which was the trough in December is low support. This is a significant line if 0.7460 breaks.
I am neutral on NZD/USD
This week, the kiwi depends on external moves more than ever. The US FOMC meeting could disappoint and refrain from QE3, thus weakening the kiwi and helping the US dollar. On the other hand, the European rate decision holds high hopes for dramatic moves to “save the euro”. If Draghi delivers, it could boost the kiwi. Stability is likely until late Wednesday, and then, everything is possible.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.