The New Zealand dollar had a positive week, but it didn’t break to new levels. RBNZ’s Rate Decision is the major event this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD
Last week New Zealand CPI rose 0.3% in the second quarter driven mainly by energy and food prices. Inflation was lower by 0.2% the in the first quarter and below expectations for a 0.5% figure. However CPI is in line with the RBNZ’s target band over the coming year. More good news Credit Card Spending jumped 4.6% in June compared to 3.9% growth in May and Visitor Arrivals climbed 2.8% in June contributing to NZ economy.
Updates: The kiwi has lost ground at the start of the trading week, as market sentiment was down over new debt fears over Spain and Greece. NZD/USD was trading at 0.7919. Trade Balance will be released later on Tuesday, as the markets are bracing for a very weak release. NZD/USD dipped below the 0.79 line, as the pair was trading at 0.7896. Trade Balance surprised the markets with a strong showing. The July reading showed a surplus of 331M, well above the market estimate of 77M. The kiwi edged down despite the strong release, As NZD/USD was trading at 0.7866. As expected, the RBNZ maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.50%. In a acompanying Rate Statement, the central bank said that the trading partner outlook is weak, particularly in the Euro-zone. Analysts expect the RBNZ will maintain the current interest rates at least until mid-2013. The kiwi was up sharply, as NZD/USD was trading at 0.7976.
- Trade Balance: Tuesday, 22:45.New Zealand’s trade surplus contracted in May to $301 million, as predicted, amid a rise in imports against exports. May’s figure is lower by $31 million posted in April. Exports dropped to $4.42 billion from $4.62 billion while imports rose to $4.11 billion from $4.07 billion. A big contraction to $20 million surplus is predicted now.
- Rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the official cash rate unchanged at 2.50% amid improving conditions in domestic economy. The low rate is aimed to boost NZ sluggish economic activity. The decision was in line with economists’ predictions. No change is forecasted.
* All times are GMT.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Kiwi/$ traded quite choppily and shattered the 0.80 line (mentioned last week). Despite the weekly rise, it’s important to note that the 0.8075 was not broken.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
0.84 was resistance back in February 2012. 0.8320 was a wing high in April, just before the big dive.
0.8260 capped the pair during March, and is stubborn resistance. 0.8185 was resistance in the past and is now weaker.
0.8075 was the peak in July 2012 and replaces other lines in this region. This is the highest in 3 months. The round number of 0.80 managed to cap the pair in November and remains of high importance, especially due to its psychological importance. It was hit by the recent moves and somewhat weaker now.
Another round number, 0.79, is key resistance, after being a very distinct line separating ranges. It proved its strength also in June 2012. 0.7840 provided support for the pair several times during June 2012 and also worked as resistance back at the end of 2011.
0.7723 supported the pair back at the beginning of 2012 and also worked in the other direction in June 2012. 0.77 provided support in December and now switches to support.
0.7620 provided support in May 2012 and is resistance once again, although weaker than in previous weeks. 0.7550 is resistance once again, even after the breakdown. It was a very distinct line separating ranges and had a similar role back in January.
Below, 0.7460 is significant support after working as support at the end of 2011 and also in May and June 2012. This is key support. 0.7370, which was the trough in December is low support. This is a significant line if 0.7460 breaks.
I remain bearish on NZD/USD
The troubles in Europe will likely outweigh the relative strength of the economy in New Zealand, despite the recent decoupling of the euro from the risk currency.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
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- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.