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The  kiwi  continued south for a second week in a row.  Retail sales is the main event this week.  Here’s an  outlook  for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

The ongoing crisis in Europe, that focused on Italy but also touched France, has an impact also on New Zealand. Closer to home, China’s lower trade balance surplus also weighed on the pair.

NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD/USD Chart November 14 18 2011

  1. Retail sales: Sunday, 21:45. New Zealand’s retail sales continued to surge in the 2nd quarter supporting claims of a real recovery following the earthquake in Christchurch. Retail sales climbed by 0.9% after 1.1% increase in the previous quarter while economists expected 0.6% rise. Meantime core retail sales excluding the automobile industry increased by 1.0% as in the previous quarter. Sales are expected to rise by 0.6% and core sales by 0.7%.
  2. PPI: Wednesday, 21:45 Manufacturers prices for finished goods increased 1.4% in the second quarter of 2011, well above predictions of a 0.8% rise and following 1.7% increase in the first quarter. The main rise occurred in energy products  Meanwhile, prices of products purchased by manufacturers increased 0.9% on quarter lower than the increase of 1.1% expected and following the 2.2% increase in Q1. PPI Input is expected to rise by 0.6% and the less important PPI Output by 0.8%.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

The kiwi was struggling with a high range at the beginning of the week, under 0.80. It then collapsed and found a bottom at 77.32 before rising and closing at 0.7834. Note that quite a few lines have changed since last week.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start from a lower point this week.  0.8330 capped a surge of the pair to higher ground and is distant resistance now.  0.8240 was the peak in October and also worked as support back in June. It is a strong line.

0.8160 was the bottom border of the range and also support in July. It works better as support, but is resistance now.  0.8090 worked as support in June and in July but is weaker resistance now.

Below, the round number of 0.80 capped the pair in November for several days and is also a psychological line. 0.79 is also a round number that worked as resistance in September and turned into support in October.

Another important line is 0.7825. It capped the pair three times, in January and in September, and provided support in April. This is an area of struggle once again. 0.7732 is the new trough in November and was also approached in September. Any downwards move will approach this line.

0.7550 is a minor line of support on which the pair moved higher. 0.7470 was the trough in October and very strong support now.

I remain bearish on NZD/USD

Worries about the Chinese “landing” and the debt crisis in Europe add to the weak quarterly unemployment figures seen in New Zealand recently. There is more room for drops.

Further reading: