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The  kiwi  more than erased the gains seen last week, as fear gripped the market and unemployment was on the rise.  The upcoming week features the RBNZ financial stability report  . Here’s an  outlook  for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

Last week a slowdown was sensed in NZ economy with a 17.1% slide in building consents after 16.6% gain in the previous month and disappointing employment data. The labor market increased by 0.2% while 0.6% rise was expected and unemployment rate increased to 6.6% while a decrease to 6.4% was predicted. Will this slowdown continue?

NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD/USD Chart November 7 11 2011

  1. RBNZ Financial Stability Report: Wednesday, 20:00. The previous financial Stability Repot held in May recounted the ongoing recovery trend in NZ economy since the earthquake in Christchurch but warned from the peril of global volatility discussing the Open Bank Resolution program to keep banks from bankruptcy I times of crisis.
  2. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 21:30. A slowdown occurred inNew Zealand’s manufacturing activity with a drop to50.8 in September after52.7 in august. Nevertheless the figures are sill positive indicating expansion and the Christmas holiday ahead raises expectations for a substantial growth. A small rise is expected.
  3. REINZ HPI: Thursday, Fri.-Mon.New Zealand’s housing market recovery slowed in September with a smaller than predicted number of sales but REINZ Monthly Housing Index increased by 1.7% from 0.5% in August indicating that the housing sector is still in good shape.A similar figure is expected now.
  4. FPI  : Thursday, 21:45. Food price index decreased by 1.0% in September due to cheaper vegetables dropping 8.6% and following 1.3% slide in the previous month. The low prices help to control rising inflation reaching an annual 5.3%.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

The pair tumbled down at the beginning of the week, and was capped by the strong 0.7975 line (mentioned last week) and eventually closed at 0.7932.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

0.8573 was a peak reached in August and remains the top line for now.  0.8505 is also a notable point which provided a temporary cushion for the pair when it traded higher. It is now weak resistance.

Moving lower, we find 0.8410 – which was a stubborn line of resistance is already a stronger line.  0.8330 has a more important rose now after capping a surge higher.

0.8240 was the peak in October and also worked as support back in June. 0.8160 was the bottom border of the range and also support in July.

0.8090 worked as support in June and in July but is weaker resistance now.  Below, 0.7975 was a long running peak and provided support back in May and in July. It is immediate and strong resistance now.

0.7895 was minor support in May and returns to be of high importance. It was tackled also in September.  Another important line is 0.7825. It capped the pair three times, in January and in September, and provided support in April. This is an area of struggle.

0.7764 was important support in May and managed to slow down the fall. It is weaker now, after being run through.  0.7655 was significant resistance back in February and also in 2010 and is now support once again.

I am bearish on NZD/USD

The rise in local unemployment rate, the heavy clouds above Europe and China and fading hopes for a rate hike all weigh on the kiwi.

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