The people behind VoteCastr continue casting their projections, based on turnout. This is an unprecedented experiment that could prove wrong of course, but the methodology makes sense. According to the data they publish, Hillary Clinton is on track to win almost all swing states: Florida (thanks to a massive Hispanic vote), Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and even Ohio, leaving Trump with only Iowa. If the turnout data that VoteCastr projects continues this way, she is on track to a landslide victory in the electoral college.
While they and we can put all the grains of salt and disclaimers, but markets are already moving.
Update: Just before first exit polls: Clinton up in Florida, tight in Ohio
Update: here is the picture as of 16:40 EST / 21:40 GMT:
Here are their latest numbers as of 15:48 Eastern, 20:48 GMT.
Florida
- 83.9 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 48 percent
- Trump: 45 percent
Colorado:
- 80.3 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 46 percent
- Trump: 43 percent
Iowa:
- 66.5 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 45 percent
- Trump: 46 percent
Wisconsin:
- 62 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 48 percent
- Trump: 43 percent
Nevada:
- 68.8 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 46 percent
- Trump: 45 percent
Ohio:
- 73.7 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 45 percent
- Trump: 46 percent
Pennsylvania
- 63.2 percent of expected total voters
- Hillary: 48 percent
- Trump: 45 percent
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