According to the self-described “ambitious” project called VoteCastr, monitoring real-time turnout (something the campaigns are doing anyway), Clinton is leading in key states. And now, there is new data. Fresh reports show Clinton leading by 4% in Ohio, a state that should be in Trump’s bag. It also shows Clinton up by 5% in Iowa, only 2.7% in Colorado (which she must win), over 12% in Wisconsin and 3.4% in Florida, which was already reported earlier, and is holding up. This is according to an update as of 11:36 Eastern / 16:36 GMT. The data is below.
It is important to stress that this is the first project of its kind: take the data with a big chunk of salt. However, markets are moving.
The US dollar is on a roll, with USD/JPY topping 105, EUR/USD getting closer to 1.10 and GBP/USD getting away from 1.24, to the downside.
Update: Just before first exit polls: Clinton up in Florida, tight in Ohio
Some of their data:
Colorado:
- 59.8 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 46.3
- Trump: 43.6
Iowa:
- 33.3 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 48.5
- Trump: 43.5
Wisconsin:
- 24.7 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 52.7
- Trump: 40.3
Nevada:
- 46.2 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 46.7
- Trump: 45.2
Ohio:
- 22.7 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 47.9
- Trump: 43.9
Florida:
- 52.4 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 48.6
- Trump: 45.2
More:
- How to trade the US elections with currencies
- US elections: updates on 21 brokers
- US elections and forex – all the updates in one place
Here is the live coverage by VoteCastr, Slate and Vice:
Here is more about their project:
In the past, media organizations agreed to hold back any Election Day voting data because they thought the information trickling in throughout the day would unduly affect voters.
Through a partnership with the data firm VoteCastr and Slate, VICE News breaks that rule and for the first time will bring you voting turnout data from the battleground states in real time. VoteCastr’s models and methods are based on the same techniques that presidential campaigns use. Its founders were part of previous presidential campaigns for Barack Obama and George W. Bush. What we see is likely what the war rooms inside the presidential campaigns are seeing.
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