- Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:30. Manufacturing continues to hum, with the PMI posting releases well into expansionary territory. The November reading improved to 57.9, its highest level in more than nine years. Will the upswing continue in December?
- Employment Report: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s economy shed 62.6 thousand in November, its first decline since April. The unemployment rate nudged higher to 8.6% up from 8.5%. We now await the December numbers.
- Ivey PMI: Friday, 15:00. The PMI was weaker than expected and fell into contraction territory in December, with a reading of 46.7, down from 52.7. This was well short of the estimate of 53.1.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start with resistance at 1.3034.
1.2916 switched to resistance at the start of December, when USD/CAD started its slide.
1.2825 is next.
1.2707 is the first support level.
1.2616 is next.
1.2498 has held in support since February 2018.
1.2422 (mentioned last week) is the final support level for now.
I am neutral on USD/CAD
The US dollar has bounced back after a weak Q4 in 2020 and has held its own in early 2021. This week’s key events, including Canada Employment Change, could have a significant impact on the direction of the pair this week.
- EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
- GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar projections.
- AUD/USD forecast – analysis for the Aussie dollar.
- USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar predictions.
- Forex+ weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.