USD/CAD Forecast November 25-29 – Canadian dollar drops after mixed consumer numbers

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USD/CAD recorded weekly gains for the third time in the past month. The upcoming week features GDP. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
In Canada, consumer data was in the spotlight last week. Consumer inflation improved to 0.3%, marking a 3-month high. The week ended with mixed retail sales reports. Core Retail sales improved to 0.2%, after two straight declines. However, retail sales posted a second successive reading of -0.1%. The indicator has managed only one gain in the past five releases.
Over in the U.S., policymakers said that the Fed would take a break from recent rate cuts unless there was a significant change in economic conditions. The rate cut in October was considered hawkish, as the Fed took pains to reassure investors that the U.S. economy was in good shape, despite the rate cut. The minutes noted that U.S. economic conditions were generally positive, with an outlook of moderate growth, a robust labor market and inflation close to the Fed’s target of 2 percent.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Wholesale Sales: Monday, 13:30. This indicator is related to consumer spending, as wholesale sales increase when consumer demand is stronger. The indicator declined by 1.2% in August, well below the estimate of +0.3%. Will we see a rebound in the September release?
  2. Corporate Profits: Tuesday, 13:30. Canadian corporations enjoyed an increase of 5.2% in profits during Q2, after two consecutive declines. Data for Q3 is due now.
  3. Current Account: Thursday, 13:30. Canada continues to post current account deficits. There was significant improvement in Q3, with a reading of C$-6.4 billion. This was better than the estimate and the lowest deficit since 2008. We now await the Q3 release.
  4. GDP: Friday, 13:30. Canada releases its GDP on a monthly basis. The economy posted a weak gain of 0.1% in August, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. Will we see an improvement in September?
  5. RMPI: Friday, 13:30. In September, the Raw Materials Price Index improved to 0.0%. but this fell short of the forecast of 2.5%. We will now receive the October release.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.3660. This is followed by 1.3550.

1.3445 has remained intact since the first week of June. 1.3385 is next.

1.3330 has held since early October.

1.3265 remains relevant. Currently, it is an immediate support level.

1.3150 is next.

1.3100 has held in support since the end of October, when USD/CAD started an extensive rally.

1.3048 (mentioned last week) is protecting the round number of 1.3000, which has psychological significance.

1.2916 was last tested in October 2018. It is the final support for now.

I am bullish on USD/CAD

The trend has been positive for USD/CAD in recent weeks, and the pair hit a 6-week high during the week. With a U.S-China trade deal still elusive, investors remain cautious, which could weigh on minor currencies like the Canadian dollar.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.