Dollar/CAD dropped on the hawkish rate hike by the BOC but then climbed up as the greenback gained fresh strength. What’s next? The jobs report and GDP stand out. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
The Bank of Canada raised interest rates as expected. Moreover, they decided to remove the word gradual from the statement and expressed optimism after the conclusion of a new trade deal in North America, the USMCA. This lifted the loonie. In the US, data was mixed: new home sales disappointed while pending home sales were up. Durable goods orders beat on the headline but missed on the core figure.Updates:
USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. Canada publishes GDP on a monthly basis, providing up to date data on the economy. The Canadian economy grew by 0.2% in July, the first month of Q3. The report for August could be similar. Uncertainty about NAFTA prevailed during the summer and may have caused a slowdown. The effects of the new trade deal, called the USMCA, will be seen only in Q4.
- RMPI: Wednesday, 12:30. The Raw Materials Price Index is important for Canada and its energy exports. The RMPI dropped by 4.6% in August. September may see a bump up. The indicator is quite volatile.
- Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 13:30. Markit’s purchasing managers’ index for Canada’s manufacturing sector stood at 54.8 points in September. This reflects OK growth. The 50-point threshold separates expansion and contraction. The number could rise now, after the USMCA deal.
- Jobs report: Friday, 12:30. Canada’s jobs reports have been volatile of late. The Canadian economy gained no less than 63.3K positions in September, but it was accompanied by slower wage growth. The unemployment rate dropped back below 6% to 5.9%. Apart from the headline numbers, it is important to watch the composition of the changes: part-time vs. full-time positions.
- Trade Balance: Friday, 12:30. Somewhat overshadowed by the jobs report, Canada’s trade surplus seen in August may not prevail for another month. The previous months saw significant deficits, making the 0.5 billion surpluses a rare feat.
*All times are GMT
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
Dollar/CAD kicked off the week above the 1.13070 level (mentioned last week). It then dropped below 1.3000 before changing course again and challenging the 1.3115 level.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.3295 held the pair down in mid-July. 1.3220 capped it earlier in the month. 1.3115 was a high point in mid-October.
1.3100 is a round number that also capped the pair several times in August. 1.3080 was a swing high in mid-October.
Below 1.3000 we find the late-October trough of 1.2970. 1.2880 was a double-bottom in September and in August.
1.2820 was a stepping stone on the way up in late May. 1.2780 was the low point in October 2018.
1.2730 provided support earlier in May. Lower, 1.2630 held the pair down back in April.
Further down, 1.25 is a critical round number and also 0.80 on CAD/USD.
I remain bearish on USD/CAD
Despite the risk-off atmosphere that boosts the US Dollar, the loonie has room to rise with the relief from the new NAFTA deal and the hawkish central bank. Oil prices should also be watched.
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