USD/CAD Forecast October 8-12 – Dancing the USMCA

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Dollar/CAD dropped sharply as the US and Canada finally reached a new trade deal. Can the loonie continue higher? The second week of October features a few housing figures. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

In a late-night effort, Canada and the US struck an accord or at least a framework for one. The USMCA replaces NAFTA and consists of few changes to the original deal. The loonie jumped, with USD/CAD kicking off the week with a significant weekend gap. In addition, oil prices remained bid, supporting the C$. The US Dollar rode higher on robust data, a surge in the benchmark 10-year yields and upbeat comments from Fed Chair Powell. Jobs reports from both countries were mixed. The US NFP missed with134K but upwards revisions compensated. Canada gained over 60K jobs but they were part-time ones and wages dropped. The choppy trading around USD/CAD did not result in any long-term moves.

Updates:

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Housing Starts: Tuesday, 12:15. The annualized level of housing starts stood at 201K in August, the second consecutive drop. We could see a bounce now. The housing sector is off the highs amid curbs to foreign buying enacted in Vancouver and in Toronto. A level of 203K is on the cards now.
  2. Building Permits: Wednesday, 12:30. The second housing figure for the week is lagging, only for August. Nevertheless, it is no less important. Also here, we have seen two consecutive drops, with -0.1% in July.
  3. NHPI: Thursday, 12:30. The New Home Price Index hardly moved in recent months. Prices edged up by 0.1% in July and in June and remained flat in the previous two months. A rise of 0.2% is forecast.

*All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Dollar/CAD kicked off the week with a weekend gap, falling below 1.280 mentioned last week and never looking back.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.3295 held the pair down in mid-July. 1.3220 capped it earlier in the month.

1.3170 served as resistance in mid-August. 1.3100 is a round number that also capped the pair several times in August.

Below 1.3000 we find the mid-August trough of 1.2960. 1.2880 was a double-bottom in September and in August.

1.2820 was a stepping stone on the way up in late May. 1.2780 was the low point in October 2018.

1.2730 provided support earlier in May. Lower, 1.2630 held the pair down back in April.

Further down, 1.25 is a critical round number and also 0.80 on CAD/USD.

I am bearish on USD/CAD

The new trade deal provides a huge relief for the Canadian dollar and opens the door for a faster pace of rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.

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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.