USD/CAD Forecast September 9-13 – BoC, Job Growth Propel Canadian Dollar Higher

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Canadian dollar supporters finally had something to cheer about, as USD/CAD fell 1.1% last week. It was the Canadian currency’s best week since June. The upcoming week has only three events, with a focus on construction events.
The Bank of Canada held the course on monetary policy, as policymakers maintained the benchmark rate at 1.75% for a seventh successive month. The rate statement was generally positive, which pushed the Canadian currency higher. Policymakers said that the U.S-China trade war was weighing on global growth, but at the same time, domestic economic conditions were strong. The BoC has not given any indication that it will follow the Fed and ease monetary policy. Still, if the economy weakens in the third quarter, the BoC could respond with lower rates in order to stimulate the economy. The week wrapped up on a very positive note, as the economy created a whopping 81.1 thousand jobs in August, crushing the estimate of 18.9 thousand. This reading came after two straight declines and boosted the Canadian dollar on Friday.
Over in the U.S., the ISM manufacturing PMI slipped to 41.9 in August, down from 51.2 in July. It marked the first reading in contraction territory (below the 50-level) since August 2016. Unemployment data was a mix. Nonfarm payrolls slowed to 130 thousand in August, down from 164 thousand a month earlier. However, wage growth rose to 0.4% in August, its strongest gain of the year.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Housing Starts: Tuesday, 12:15. Housing starts sparkled in June, climbing to 246 thousand. However, the indicator softened in July, dropping to 222 thousand. The downward trend is expected to continue in August, with a forecast of 213 thousand.
  2. Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. This construction indicator tends to show large swings, which often results in forecasts which are wide of the mark. In June, building permits fell by 3.7%, marking a second straight decline. Investors are expecting a turnaround in July, with an estimate of a 2.1% gain.
  3. NHPI: Thursday, 12:30. This inflation index is a useful indicator of the health of the housing sector. The index has been lethargic in recent months, hovering around zero. The indicator has posted two straight readings of -0.1%. The estimate for July stands at 0.0%.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.3565.

1.3445 has held in resistance since the first week of June. This is followed by 1.3385.

1.3350 has held steady since mid-June and strengthened in resistance this week.

1.3265 switched to resistance role in mid-week, with USD/CAD recording sharp losses and breaking through several lines of support.

1.3175 is an immediate support line.

1.3125 (mentioned last week) has provided support since the end of July.

1.3048 is protecting the round number of 1.3000, which has psychological significance.

1.2916 has held firm since October.

1.2830 is the final support line for now.

I remain bullish on USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar finally enjoyed a winning week, after a long streak of weekly losses. Still, weak global conditions and the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China could weigh on risk currencies like the Canadian dollar.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.