USD/CAD Outlook: Dollar Edges Higher with 0.3% Weekly Loss

• Powell stated that the robust US economy might necessitate stricter borrowing conditions.

• US crude oil futures settled at $89.37 per barrel, rising 1.2% on Thursday.

• Canadian producer prices rose by 0.4% in September compared to August.

The USD/CAD outlook remains optimistic, with the dollar showcasing resilience on Friday despite a looming weekly loss of around 0.3%. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the robust US economy and tight labor markets might necessitate stricter borrowing conditions to manage inflation. However, he also mentioned that rising market interest rates might lessen the need for the central bank to take action.

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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar remained nearly flat against the US dollar on Thursday. It stayed close to its lowest point in 13 days. This was due to increased long-term borrowing costs following Jerome Powell’s comments.

According to Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank, various factors affected the Canadian dollar. Yields, yield differentials, risk appetite, and commodities were not favoring the CAD. Additionally, he said, “For the CAD to improve, we would likely need to see stronger risk appetite and a considerably weaker US dollar. Moreover, there would need to be some relief from the rising US market rates.”

The price of oil, a significant Canadian export, increased. However, it provided little support for the Canadian dollar. US crude oil futures settled at $89.37 per barrel, rising 1.2%. Notably, concerns about Israel’s military campaign in Gaza potentially escalating to a regional conflict continued to make traders uneasy.

Elsewhere, Canada’s producer prices rose by 0.4% in September compared to August.

USD/CAD key events today

Investors do not expect any key reports from the US or Canada. Therefore, the pair will probably end the week quietly.

USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls achieve a new high above 1.3701.

The USD/CAD pair bulls have made progress on the charts by making a new high above the 1.3701 key level. Moreover, the price now respects the 30-SMA as support. At the same time, the RSI has started respecting the pivotal 50 level as support, indicating a bullish trend.

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After breaking above 1.3701, the price has pulled back to retest the level as support. If it holds, bulls will return to propel the price toward the next resistance level at 1.3800. However, if the price breaks below this level and the 30-SMA, we could see the bears take control.

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