USD/CAD reversed directions last week, gaining about 80 points. The pair closed the week at 1.2558. This week’s major events are Manufacturing Sales, Core CPI and Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian employment numbers were stronger than expected, which gave a small boost to the Canadian dollar. In the US, employment numbers were very positive last week. JOLTS Job Openings improved and the 4-week jobless claims was the lowest since 2000. [do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDCADUpdate”/]USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: Manufacturing Sales: Wednesday, 13:30. This is the first key event of the week. The indicator has struggled recently, with three releases in the past four releases. The February reading came in at -1.7%, weaker than the forecast of -1.1%. A small decline is expected in March report, with an estimate of -0.2%. BOC Monetary Policy Report: Wednesday, 15:00. This quarterly report discusses the key factors that the BOC takes into account when determining its monetary policy and interest rate decisions. The report should be treated as a market-mover. A press conference will follow, hosted by BOC Governor Stephen Poloz. BOC Overnight Rate: Wednesday, 15:00. The BOC shocked the markets in January, with a surprise cut that lowered rates to 0.75%. No change is expected in the upcoming rate decision, which will be announced via a rate statement. Core CPI: Friday, 13:30. Core CPI is the most important inflation indicator, and an unexpected reading can have a significant impact on the direction of USD/CAD. The index improved to 0.6% in February, matching expectations. This was the indicator’s best performance since February 2014. The markets are expecting a softer release in March, with an estimate of 0.3%. Core Retail Sales: Friday, 13:30. Core Retail Sales excludes automobile sales, which tend to be volatile and distorts the underlying trend. The indicator has looked weak, posting two straight declines. The January release came in at -1.8%, much lower than the estimate of -0.4%. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the February report, with a forecast of +0.5%. CPI: Friday, 13:30. After three consecutive declines, the index pushed into positive territory in January, posting a strong gain of 0.9%, within expectations. The estimate for the February reading stands at 0.5%. Foreign Securities Purchases: Friday, 13:30. This indicator is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners must purchase domestic securities with Canadian dollars. The indicator rebounded strongly in January, with a gain of C$5.73 billion, well above the estimate of -C$1.95 billion. Retail Sales: Friday, 13:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending. In January, the indicator posted a decline of -1.7%, well of the estimate of -0.7%. The markets are expecting a small gain of 0.2% in the February reading. USD/CAD Technical Analysis USD/CAD opened the week at 1.2477 and dropped to a low of 1.2386, testing support at 1.2387 (discussed last week). The pair then reversed directions and climbed all the way to 1.2667 late in the week. However, the pair was unable to consolidate at these levels and retracted, closing the week at 1.2558. Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]Technical lines, from top to bottom We begin with resistance at 1.2924. This line was last tested in March 2009. 1.2798 is a strong resistance line. 1.2624 held firm as the pair reached a high of 1.2621. 1.2541 has switched to a support role as the USD/CAD posted gains during the week. This is a weak line which could see further action early in the week. 1.2387 was tested in support but recovered and is providing strong support. 1.2230 has held firm since mid-January. 1.2114 is the final support line for now. I am bullish on USD/CAD US employment data rebounded nicely last week following the dismal NFP report. If key Canadian data such as Manufacturing Production does not post strong numbers, the US dollar rally could continue. In this week’s podcast, we discuss: USDown or greenback comeback? And also touch other topics: Subscribe to Market Movers on iTunes Further reading: For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook. For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast. For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast. For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast. For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast. For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast. Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer. Kenny's Google Profile View All Post By Kenny Fisher Canadian Dollar ForecastMinorsWeekly Forex Forecasts share Read Next GBP/USD Forecast Apr. 13-17 Kenny Fisher 7 years USD/CAD reversed directions last week, gaining about 80 points. The pair closed the week at 1.2558. This week's major events are Manufacturing Sales, Core CPI and Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian employment numbers were stronger than expected, which gave a small boost to the Canadian dollar. In the US, employment numbers were very positive last week. JOLTS Job Openings improved and the 4-week jobless claims was the lowest since 2000. [do action="autoupdate" tag="USDCADUpdate"/] USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. 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