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The  Canadian dollar was unchanged this week, as USD/CAD  closed  just above the  1.31  line.  There are only 3 events this week, highlighted by Manufacturing Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Solid Canadian employment and manufacturing numbers helped the loonie hold its own last week. In the US,  NFP  was slightly below expectations, which means the guessing game about the timing of rate hike by the Fed will continue.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDCADUpdate”/]

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUD_USD_Forecast.Aug10-14

  1. Housing Starts:  Tuesday, 12:15. Housing Starts provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing industry. The indicator edged higher in June, with a reading of 203 thousand. This was much higher than the forecast of 191 thousand. The estimate for the July report stands at 205 thousand.
  2. NHPI:  Thursday, 12:30. The housing inflation index continues to improve, and posted a gain of 0.2% in May. The markets are anticipating a gain of 0.3% in June.
  3. Manufacturing Sales:  Friday, 12:30. This is  a key economic indicator and should  be treated by traders as market-mover. The indicator has struggled in 2015  and produced a weak gain of 0.1% in May. The markets are hoping for a strong turnaround in June, with an estimate of 2.1%.

* All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.3124 and  climbed  to a  high of 1.3213. The  pair then reversed directions, slipping to a low of 1.3042, testing support at 1.3063  (discussed last week).  USD/CAD  managed to recover  late in the week  and closed  at 1.3113.

Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines, from top to bottom

We  begin with resistance at 1.3587.

1.3443 was a cap in December 2003.

1.3346 has held firm since August 2004.

1.3165 is under pressure and is a weak resistance line.

1.3063 was tested in support.  It  is  protecting the  symbolic line of 1.30.

1.2924 held firm and has strengthened as a support line.

1.2798 is the next line of support.

1.2673 marked the start of the current  greenback rally which has seen the pair push  close to  the 1.31 level.

1.2541  is the final support level for now.

I am bullish on USD/CAD

The US economy has shown improvement in Q2, which could  fuel speculation about a September rate hike,  and this could  send the greenback to higher levels.

In our latest podcast, we ask: Will they or won’t they? We talk about the Fed and also falling oil and silver.

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Further reading: