USD/CAD Forecast Oct. 1-5 2017

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Dollar/CAD was on the rise, extending its bounce from the lows. Has it bottomed out? The jobs report is the big event for the upcoming week. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Rising oil prices were not enough to boost the Canadian dollar. Fresh tensions with North Korea triggered a “risk off” atmosphere which is not favorable for risk currencies like the C$. And data was not too good either: GDP remained flat in July, lower than 0.1% expected. This disappointment could continue weighing on the loonie.

Updates:

USD/CAD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 13:30. Markit’s manufacturing PMI has shown a small drop from 55.5 to 54.6 points in August, reflecting somewhat slower growth. A similar score is expected now.
  2. BOC Business Outlook Survey: Monday, 14:30. This quarterly report provides a timely update on the economic situation and could include hints towards the next rate decision. The Bank of Canada raised rates twice and hinted it could continue with further hikes. This report could shed some light on the next moves.
  3. Housing Starts: Thursday, 12:15. Despite attempts to curb markets in Vancouver and Toronto, the sector looks strong. A level of 232K was seen in August. We now get the fresh data for September.
  4. Trade balance: Thursday, 12:30. Canada suffered from a trade deficit also in July, with 3 billion. The nation does not always have a deficit, but another one is on the cards now.
  5. Jobs report: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian job market has been quite upbeat in 2017, but it also had its bumps. The economy gained 22.2K jobs in August, beating expectations. The unemployment rate slipped to 6.2%.
  6. Building Permits: Friday, 12:30. Contrary to housing starts, building permits fell short of expectations and also fell in general: 3.5% in July. Nevertheless, the indicator is quite volatile and could bounce now.
  7. Ivey PMI: Friday, 14:00. This highly respected purchasing managers’ index dropped from the highs and stood at 56.3 points in August. A score of 57.2 is on the cards for September.

* All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Dollar/CAD was on the rise but stalled under resistance at 1.2410 (discussed last week).

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.27 is a round number and also the top of a short-lived range. 1.2640 was the bottom of that range and a level where the pair reached after bouncing back.

1.2580 is a pivotal line and capped the pair temporarily on its recovery path. 1.25, the round number, provided support for the pair in August.

1.2410 held the pair cushioned for some time but was eventually broken. 1.22 is a round number and also worked as support a few years ago.

1.2065 is the (current) swing low of September 2017. It is followed by the obvious level of 1.20.

Below 1.20, we find 1.1925.a place of support as it worked as such in early 2015. Below that point, we see 1.17.

I am bearish on USD/CAD

The rise in oil prices has been ignored by the loonie, but it could respond now. In addition, hesitation from the Fed about the next hike could weigh on the greenback.

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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor
I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me.

Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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