USD/CAD Outlook – October 17-21

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The Canadian dollar enjoyed a superb week, with USD/CAD closing much lower and getting closer to parity. BOC Business Outlook Survey and inflation data are the major event this week. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for the Canadian dollar.

Last week a positive week for the Canadian economy with a better than expected rise in housing starts reaching 206,000 from 192,000 in the previous month and well above predictions of 187,000 units. Furthermore, trade balance deficit increased less than predicted to 0.6N from 0.5B in the previous month while a bigger gap of -0.9b was predicted signaling stability in the Canadian market.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:USD/CAD Chart October 17 21 2011

  1. Foreign Securities Purchases: Monday, 12:30. A big climb in the amount of Canadian securities sold to foreigners in July reaching a record C$11.8 billion after selling off Canadian securities by C$3.5 billion in the previous month. The reason for this major increase is the relatively low unemployment rate and AAA credit rating. A decrease to 9.23 billion is predicted.
  2. BOC Business Outlook Survey: Monday, 14:30. In the previous report  the BOC was positive concerning the outlook for the next 12 months but lowered expectations forUS economic growth. This outlook was backed up by positive expansion indicators from companies and an improvement in the job market.
  3. Leading Index: Wednesday, 12:30. Canada’s composite leading indicator was flat in August amid a decline in the number of existing home sales overshadowing the increase in retail sales and new factory orders following 0.1% rise in the previous month. A climb of 0.3% is forecasted now.
  4. Wholesale Sales: Wednesday, 12:30.  Canadian Wholesale Sales increased by 0.8% in July after a flat reading in June. The major rise was due to machinery, equipment and supplies. An increase of 0.5% is predicted.
  5. Inflation data: Friday, 11:00. Core consumer prices were well above predictions in August gaining 0.4% after 0.2% increase in the previous month. This nice climb was matched by the headline CPI rising 0.3% although analysts expected 0.2% rise. This high reading was lead by transportation and food increases. Core CPI is expected to increase by 0.3% while CPI by 0.1%.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Dollar/CAD lost the 1.0360 line (discussed last week) very early in the week. It continued declining and eventually closed at 1.0097, just above the 1.0080 line.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

1.0850 was a double top – both in 2009 and 2010 and is the first distant line for now. 1.0750, that capped the pair several times in the past, the last being May 2010 is strong resistance as well.

Next, we also have a multiple and strong resistance line at 1.0677, last seen in August 2010. The pair got close to this level in October 2011 as well. 1.0550 provides minor resistance after temporarily capping the pair recently.

1.0500 is a minor resistance line that replaces 1.0510. It was a  pivotal around the same time and was a point of resistance before the pair fell. 1.0360 capped the pair in September and October and also provided support.

1.03 is a minor line that the pair struggled with. The round 1.02 line capped the pair at the end of 2010 and was the low of 2009. It already managed to switch positions and is important/

1.0080 is another minor line was pivotal at the end of 2010. The very round number of USD/CAD parity is a clear line of course, and it will be closely watched on a potential downfall.

Under parity, 0.9915 was a peak back in June and is now minor support, after being run through recently. 0.9780, where the current run began is the next and important support line.

Below, 0.9667 is of importance, followed by 0.9525.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

Apart from the drop in unemployment and the big gain in jobs seen earlier in the month, recent data was positive as well. This includes good news from the US, on which Canada is very dependent.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Anat Dror – Senior Writer

I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew.

In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students.

I’ve also worked as a community organizer

2 Comments

  1. I am neutral on the loonie. Even good news didn’t help cad. What happened to the usdcad pair is the movement of the usd. The usd isn’t likely to drop further because stock indices won’t rise further (in fact a bearish correction is likely for next week and flash crash movement for the weeks after next until early November). So the loonie stopped at 1,01. I predict a small rise to 1,024 for next week.

  2. Pingback: USD/CAD Outlook – October 24-28 | Forex Crunch