USD/CHF Outlook April 16-20

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USD/CHF moved downwards during the week, as the dollar lost some ground. However, the pair showed almost no change at week’s end, closing at the 0.9190 level.  The upcoming week is very quiet, with only two releases. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

USD/CHF couldn’t break out of range this week, as both Europe and the US released mixed economic data. Will the pair show any movement this week? With the markets increasingly concerned about the fiscal situation in Spain, new developments coming out of Madrid could affect the direction of the pair.

Updates: PPI fell sharply in April, dropping to 0.3%. This was below the market forecast, which called for an increase of 0.5%. The dollar moved upwards against the Swiss franc, as USD/CHF climbed above the 0.92 level. The pair is trading at 0.9226. The Swiss franc rebounded from losses earlier in the week, as USD/CHF fell to 0.9141. After a flat 0.0 reading last month, the markets cheered as ZEW Economic Expectations hit 2.1. The modest rise was the first time that the indicator finds itself in positive territory since April 2011. The dollar rebounded as USD/CHF moved upwards. The pair is trading just below the 0.92 level, at 0.9195. USD/CHF is moving in a narrow range, trading at 0.9165.

USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  

  1. PPI: Monday, 7:15. The Producer Price Index shot up to 0.8% last month, the highest reading since June 2008. The market forecast for the April reading is lower, with a prediction of a 0.5% increase.
  2. ZEW Economic Expectations: Wednesday, 9:00. This diffusion index has been mired in negative territory since last April, but finally reached the 0.0 level last month. A reading above zero in April would be a welcome sign of economic activity, and could help the swissie as well.

*All times are GMT

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USD/CHF opened at 0.9179, and reached a high of 0.9217. , as the line of 0.9002 (discussed last week), held firm. The pair then broke through the 0.91 level, falling as low as 0.9091. USD/CHF then rebounded, and closed virtually unchanged, at  0.9187.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin with resistance just above the round number of 0.95, at 0.9510. This line was last tested in January. Below, is the resistance line of 0.9412. Next is 0.9317, which was tested in mid-March but continues to provide strong resistance to USD/CHF. This is followed by resistance at 0.9250, which has not been breached by the pair since mid-March.

Close by, 0.9204 was briefly breached again this week, as the pair moved upwards. Next, the line of 0.9156 is providing weak support to the pair. This line could be tested if the Swiss franc shows some strength, as USD/CHD closed the week close to this support level, at 0.9187.

This is followed by support at the round figure of 0.91. This important line has been tested in both directions recently, and the pair broke through this level on its downward swing this week. The line continues to provide weak support to the pair.

Next, there is support at 0.9002. This level has strengthened slightly, as USD/CHD trades at higher levels. This is followed by support at the line of 0.8924. USD/CHF has not traded in this range since late February. Below is the line of 0.8850, which has acted in a strong support role since last November. Next is the line of 0.8768, which USD/CHF last tested in November 2011.

This is followed by support at 0.8710. This line has served as strong support since October of last year. The final line for now is 0.8621, which has provided support dating back to September 2011.

I am neutral on USD/CHF.

USD/CHF was almost unchanged last week, and we could continue to see further drifting by the pair. With only two Swiss economic indicators scheduled for release this week, the direction of the pair may well depend on the market’s reaction to economic data coming out of the US or the financial crisis in Spain.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.