USD/CHF Outlook Aug. 13-17

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The Swiss franc lost about one cent against the dollar, as USD/CHF closed the week at 0.9769. There are only two releases in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

A disappointing Consumer Climate release and better than expected US employment numbers helped the dollar gain ground on the Swiss franc last week.

Updates: The swissie gained ground to start to the trading week, as USD/CHF was trading at 0.9723. PPI figures will be released on Tuesday. PPI declined 0.3% for the second straight month. This was slightly below the market estimate, which stood at -0.2%. USD/CHF was unchanged, trading at 0.9727. ZEW Economic Expectations will be released on Thursday. The swissie is moving upwards, as USD/CHF was trading at 0.9782. ZEW Economic Expectations improved in July, but was still very weak, posting a reading of -33.3 points. It was the fourth straight reading in negative territory, indicating weak confidence by institutional analysts and investors in the Swiss economy. USD/CHF was steady, as the pair was trading at 0.9779.

USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  

  1. PPI: Tuesday, 7:15. This inflation index has posted declines for three consecutive months, and the markets are predicting another drop of 0.2% in August. If the indicator does indeed drop, this would indicate ongoing contraction in the manufacturing industry.
  2. ZEW Economic Expectations: Thursday, 9:00. The past two releases have been awful, with readings below -40 points. The markets will be hoping for some improved numbers in the August reading.      

* All times are GMT

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USD/CHF opened the week at 0.9667, and dropped to low of 0.9658. The pair then rebounded, touching a high of 0.9807, and closed the week at 0.9769. The resistance line of 0.9783 (discussed last week), was briefly breached as the dollar pushed above the 0.98 line, but was holding firm as of week’s end.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.0216, which has held firm since September 2010. This is followed by resistance at 1.0136. Next is the resistance line at 1.0066, which was last tested in November 2010. This is followed by parity, which continues to be a strong line of resistance. Next, there is resistance at 0.9915. Below is 0.9783, which was breached as the dollar improved, but is providing weak resistance. Look for this line to be further tested if the Swiss franc continues to weaken.

There is weak support at 0.9719, which has been alternating between support and resistance roles.The next line of support is 0.9584. This line has strengthened as the pair trades at higher levels. Next, there is support is at 0.9510, which saw some movement in July. This is followed by support at 0.9412.

Below, there is strong support at 0.9317, which has held firm since mid-May. This is followed by support at 0.9250. Further support can be found at 0.9182, which was last tested in early May. The final support level for now is 0.9093, which has held firm in support since April.

I am bullish on USD/CHF.

USD/CHF has been choppy throughout most of July, and the Swiss franc proved unable to build on last week’s rally. Given the troubles in Europe and the global slowdown, many investors will be drawn to the safety of the US dollar. A weak Swiss economy and lack of action by the Federal Reserve leaves room for the dollar to make further inroads against the swissie.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.