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The Swiss franc is slowly losing its safe haven status. GDP is the highlight of this week’s Swiss events. Here is an outlook for these events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

The efforts of the Swiss National Bank were successful in preventing another strengthening of the franc, only when UBS provided help with a fee on Swiss deposits, the leap above 0.80 was achieved. Is this the beginning of a trend?

USD/CHF daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:USD CHF Chart  August 29 September 2 2011

  1. UBS Consumption Indicator: Tuesday, 6:00. This large Swiss bank combines 5 economic indicators for its highly regarded index. Last month saw a big drop to 1.48 points. A small drop is expected to follow.
  2. GDP: Thursday, 5:45. After quite a few quarters of strong growth, the total output of the Swiss economy grew by only 0.3% in the first quarter of 2011. Due to the strong value of the franc and the global slowdown, another quarter of weak growth is expected now, even slower than Q1.
  3. Retail Sales: Thursday, 7:15. This volatile indicator surprised last month with a strong rise. A correction is likely now, with a small drop in the volume of sales.
  4. SVME PMI: Thursday, 7:30. The last purchasing managers’ survey from SVME exceeded expectations with a score of 53.5 points. This reflects growth at a moderate pace. A small drop is likely now, but the indicator is unlikely to drop under 50 points – no contraction, at least not now.

* All times are GMT.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

Dollar/Swiss traded in a range between the 0.7850 and 0.80 lines (mentioned last week). In the last hours of the trading week, it made a break higher, eventually closing at 0.8058, the highest level in a month.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

We start from the round number of 0.84. It capped the pair before a sharper move lower began. It is followed by 0.8330, which was an all time low back in June, and provided support afterwards as well.

The next former all time low  of 0.8275 proved to be a strong line of resistance after it was broken, and before the collapse. It is followed by 0.82, which managed to cap a recovery attempt recently, and worked as a pivotal line . This round number is minor now.

0.8130 is a minor line below. We’ve seen it work perfectly well as support, serving as the bottom border of the range before the last drop and was only temporarily breached now. The previous record low of 0.8075 is now immediate resistance.

The round number of 0.80 continues to be of high importance. After it was lost, the pair recently tried to break above it, and after a long struggle, this line was broken. 0.7925 is a minor line that worked as weak support, and a pivotal line.

0.7850 worked perfectly well as support – the bottom border of the range. 0.78 proved to be a line of resistance after the dive lower. The pair got close to this line before recovering.

0.77 is another round number and a pivotal line. It’s importance is greater now – the pair struggled around this line that slowed down its recovery. 0.7625 was a place where the pair found support. It is of minor importance now.

I am bullish on USD/CHF.

It seems that the sophisticated efforts of the SNB begin working, with some help from banks. In addition, the high value of the franc is already strongly felt in the Swiss economy. We will probably see that now with the GDP release. As long as the European debt crisis is contained, the pair has room for rises.

Further reading: