Despite its role as a safe haven currency, the Swiss franc also surrendered to the surging dollar. The upcoming week features a few events that will move the franc. Here’s an outlook for the Swiss events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.
It seems that USD/CHF reached a bottom. One of the factors that pushed the pair lower was the rise in the prices of oil. The drop in oil, as well as in other commodities, contributed to the rise of USD/CHF. Will this continue?
USD/CHF daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
- Thomas Jordan talks: Tuesday. Following the hawkish comments of Swiss National Bank governor Hildebrand, the Swiss franc strengthened. Thomas Jordan is a senior member of the ECB, and as such, his comments in a speech in Geneva are also likely to shake the Swiss franc.
- ZEW Economic Expectations: Thursday, 9:00. After 7 consecutive months of pessimism, reflected in negative numbers, this important survey has shown optimism last month, 8.8 points. A similar score is expected now.
- Jean-Pierre Danthine: Friday, 13:30. Another member of the SNB is likely to set the closing tone for the Swissy towards the end of the week.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
Dollar/Swiss began the week with a struggle around the 0.8780 line (discussed last week) before rising higher. The close above 0.89, at 0.8921, is a significant bullish signal.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
0.9783, was a double top at the beginning of the year, making it a very important frontier on the way up to parity. 0.96 provided support at the beginning of the year and this is top frontier at the moment. Another round number will be another line of struggle – 0.95 – it worked in October and in December as support.
0.9370 is the next important line – it was a stubborn peak at the end of February and at the beginning of March, making it a strong line of resistance also now. It’s followed by 0.92, which was an excellent cushion at the same period of time.
Minor resistance is found at 0.9125 after working as minor support earlier this year. The round number of 0.90 worked well in both directions, especially as resistance, capping recovery attempts by the pair.
Another major line is 0.89. This was a double bottom, and was an all time low for around one month, until lower levels were reached. 0.8780 was a swing low and now had the opposite role as resistance, when the pair began rising.
0.8625 was the previous trough and now works as minor support. The final frontier on the downside is at the round number of 0.85, below the fresh all-time low of 0.8553.
I remain bullish on USD/CHF.
As the weakness in commodity prices continues releases the hot air out of the Swiss franc. With some improved signs from the US (such as Non-Farm Payrolls) and the close above the important line of 0.89, there’s more room for rises for USD/CHF.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
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