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The Swiss franc had a second week of retreat against the dollar. Did USD/CHF find a bottom? The upcoming week consists of a few interesting events. Here is an outlook for the events that will move the franc, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF, that stands at a pivotal line.

The quarterly rate decision in Switzerland didn’t provide any news. The SNB isn’t likely to intervene. One of the factors that weakened the franc this week was the drop in the price of oil. Will this continue? Let’s start:

USD/CHF daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:USD/CHF Chart June 20 24 2011

  1. SNB Quarterly Bulletin: Wednesday, 9:00. The Swiss National Bank releases statistical information about the current situation in Switzerland. This consists of economic outlooks. A positive outlook is expected.
  2. Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:00. Switzerland enjoy a surplus in its trade balance, but the value tends to vary. In the past two months, these surpluses were lower than expected. It’s now expected to rise from last month’s 1.5 billion, but will likely remain under 2 billion.
  3. ZEW Economic Expectations: Thursday, 9:00. The highly regarded institute surveys business leaders and provides an outlook for the future. This figure is quite volatile. After setting a positive score of 8.8 two months ago, it turned negative at -11.5 points last month. Another flip to a positive number, which indicates optimism, is likely now.

* All times are GMT.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

Dollar / Swiss began the week with another dive towards the all time low reached very recently. But this attempt failed. After the pair crossed the 0.8463 line (discussed last week), it remained above this line and was perfectly capped by the next line – 0.8533. It eventually closed at 0.8468, very close to the 0.8563 line, which is critical now.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

We start from 0.9370, which was a stubborn peak at the beginning of March. Below, 0.92, an excellent cushion at the same period of time is resistance.

Minor resistance is found at 0.9125 after working as minor support earlier this year.  The round number of 0.90 worked well in both directions, especially as resistance, capping recovery attempts by the pair.

Another major line is 0.89. This was a double bottom, and was an all time low for around one month, until lower levels were reached.  0.8780 was a swing low and capped the pair. This line is further away now.

0.8625 was the previous trough and now works as minor resistance, switching positions from two weeks ago.  The older all-time low of 0.8553 is still of high importance.

The next line is previous all time low of 0.8463 which worked as an excellent line of resistance just now.  The new all time area of 0.8330 worked as support just now, and continues to have the same role. Far below, we have the round number of 0.80, but it’s very far.

I am bullish on USD/CHF.

While the SNB won’t and can’t intervene, it seems clear that the strength of the currency is the reason for the  weak GDP. After a second week of retreat against the greenback, the pair might have found a bottom and can move up.

Another opinion: FX Tech Strategy sees a possibility of a return to the downward trend after the pause.

Further reading: