USD/CHF Outlook March 19-23
Minors, USD/CHF Forecast

USD/CHF Outlook March 19-23

The Swiss franc  lost some ground to the dollar during the week, but managed to rebound, and closed the  week  down slightly,  at 0.9150.  The upcoming week  is a quiet one, with  just three  releases.  Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

USD/CHF showed little change for the week, as the easing in the Greek debt crisis was already factored in by the markets.

Updates: USD/CHF is steady, trading at 0.9163. Swiss Industrial Production stunned the markets, rising by an outstanding 7.9%. This was the sharpest rise in over  three years. USD/CHF dropped, trading just above the 0.91 level, at 91.01. Trade Balance rose sharply to 2.68B, its highest level since December 2011.

USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  

  1. Industrial Production: Tuesday, 8:15.  This indicator measures the change in output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. The indicator disappointed  the markets last month, falling by 1.4%. The market forecast for March calls for an increase of 0.4%. Will the indicator  rebound into positive territory this month?  
  2. Trade Balance: Thursday, 7:00. Traders should pay close attention to Trade Balance,  as  increased exports means that foreigners are buying more francs to purchase Swiss goods.  The indicator fell in February to 1.55B, a sixth-month low. The markets are predicting an improved reading in March of 1.97B.  
  3. SNB Quarterly Bulletin: Friday, 8:30.  This report tends to have a muted impact on the markets, as much of the information was already released in the Monetary Policy Assessment. A report that is more hawkish than forecast is bullish for the Swiss franc.

*All times are GMT

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USD/CHF opened at 0.9191, and the dollar then  flexed some muscle, climbing all the way up to 0.9334. The pair  then dropped to a low of 0.9140, as the  support line of 0.9120 (discussed last week)  held firm. USD/CHF closed the week down slightly, at 0.9151.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin with resistance at 0.9510, which was last tested in January. Below, is the line of 0.9412, which acted as support last month, and is now in a resistance role. Next is the resistance line of 0.9306,which was briefly breached as the dollar rallied.  This is followed by the line of 0.9250, which had held firm until the pair broke through this week. Below, 0.9204   is providing weak resistance to the pair.

The line of 0.9120  is a weak support line, and  could be tested if USD/CHF  moves downwards. The next line of support is at 0.9050, followed by 0.8924.   Below is 0.8850, which  has acted in  a strong support role since November. Next is the line of 0.8768. This is followed by support at 0.8710. The final support line for now is 0.8637.

I am  bullish on USD/CHF.

USD/CHF has been making slow but steady progress upwards since early March, and the dollar showed some strength during the week, punching past the 0.93 level before retreating. With the US economy contuing to gain steam, the pair may make further inroads upwards.

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.