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USD/CHF showed some movement, but was little changed over the week, closing just shy of the 0.93 level, at 0.9297. This week looks to be a quiet one, with only three releases. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

The Swiss franc managed to avoid the tumultuous week which affected the euro this past week. Recent Swiss releases have been neutral or positive, which helped the franc hold its own against the US dollar.

Updates: PPI was a major disappointment, dropping 0.1%. This was the first time in 2012 that the index fell below the zero level. The Swiss franc continues to slump, as USD/CHF was trading at 0.9328. The markets are jittery as the crisis in Greece continues, and the political deadlock may lead to another election. The pair is unchanged, trading at 0.9338, as the swissie shrugged off a weak CPI reading on Monday. The Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations will be released on Wednesday. Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations slunped badlly, declining by 4.0 points. The April reading stood at 2.1. The Swiss franc lost ground on the news,  and was trading at 0.9450. The markets will be quieter on Thursday, as it is a bank holiday in Switzerland. USD/CHF was steady, trading at 0.9462.

USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:    

  1. PPI:  Monday, 7:15. The Producer Price Index was down sharply in April, falling to 0.3%. The market forecast for May calls for a slight increase, to 0.4%.
  2. SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks: Monday, 15:45. Analysts will be looking for clues as to interest rate policy when the head of the central bank delivers a speech in Zurich. A speech which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Swiss franc.
  3. ZEW Economic Expectations: Wednesday, 9:00. This diffusion index is based on a survey of institutional investors and analysts. Last month, the index climbed about the o.o level for the first time since April 2o11. Will the index continue its upwards trend in May?

*All times are GMT

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USD/CHF opened the week at 0.9266, and then dropped to a low of 0.9194. The pair then rebounded, reaching a high of 0.9301, as the resistance line of 0.9317 (discussed last week) held firm. USD/CHF closed the week at 0.9297.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with the resistance line of 0.9584, which was last tested in February 2011, at which time USD/CHF declined sharply. Next, there is resistance just above the round number of 0.95, at 0.9510. This line has remained intact since January. Below, is the resistance line of 0.9412, which has held firm throughout 2012.  This is followed by 0.9317, which continues to providing resistance to USD/CHF. This line could be tested if the Swiss franc continues to weaken.

Next, there is support at 0.9250. The pair briefly breached this line early in the week, and it is now providing weak support. Close by, 0.9204, which was repeatedly tested in April, has also switched to a support role. This is followed by the support level of  0.9156. This  line is strengthening as USD/CHF trades at higher levels.

This is followed by the round figure of 0.91, a line which the pair repeatedly tested in April. Next, there is strong support at the psychologically significant round number of 0.90. This is followed by the support level of 0.8924, which has not seen any activity since late February.

Below, is the line of 0.8850, which has acted in a strong support role since last November. Next is the support level of 0.8768, which USD/CHF last tested in November 2011. This is followed by 0.8710, which has served as a strong support level since October of last year. The final line for now is 0.8621, which has provided support dating back to September 2011.

I am bullish on USD/CHF.

USD/CHF  has been moving steadily upwards   in May. The pair was trading in the mid-0.90 range at the beginning of the month, and  in now trading    very close to the 0.93 level. US economic releases have been generally steady, and with the turmoil engulfing the Euro-zone, the swissie could continue to lose ground against the dollar.

Further reading: