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The yen had little to cheer about over Christmas, as USD/JPY  jumped over  100 points last week, closing above the 105 level.  There are no Japanese releases this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

It was a busy week for Japanese releases. Consumer spending and manufacturing numbers were weak, but retail sales looked sharp and inflation indicators continue to point upwards. In the US, unemployment claims and housing data late in the week helped the dollar move higher and close the week above the 105 line.

USD/JPY daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:   USD JPY Forecast Dec. 30-Jan.3

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY started the week at 104.03. The pair quickly broke through support at 104.00 (discussed last week) and dropped to a  low of 103.77. USD/JPY then reversed directions,  climbing past  the 105 line  to a high of 105.18.  The  pair  closed the week at 105.15.
Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom

We  start with resistance at 109.18. This is the last resistance line before the key 110 level, which was last breached in August 2008.

Next is 108.38. This line has remained intact since September 2008. At that time, USD/JPY was in a downward spiral which saw it drop below the 0.90 line.

106.66 has  held firm since November 2008.   This is followed by resistance at 105.70. This line has weakened as the pair has pushed  above the 105 line. It could face pressure this  week if the yen continues to fall.

We find the first support level for the pair  at the round number of 104. This was a key line back in May 2008. This line was breached early in the week, but has some breathing room as the yen starts the week above the 105 level.

102.50  continues to provide support and has strengthened as USD/JPY trades at higher levels.

101.44 was the post-crisis high seen in April 2009, and continues to provide strong support.

100.85 saw activity in July as the dollar showed strength against the yen. It is protecting the key level of 100.

The round number of 100 is  a key psychological level. It is providing USD/JPY with steady support.

The final support level for now is at 98.80. It has remained firm since early November, when the pair began the present rally which has seen the yen tumble to five-year lows.

 

I am  bullish on USD/JPY

Trade was thin last week due to the Christmas holiday, but that didn’t help the yen, which continues to lose ground. QE tapering is about to begin, and further scaling down by the Fed is expected, which is dollar positive. As well, the Bank of Japan has indicated it will continue its current monetary program, which could lead to further weakening of the Japanese currency.