AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 23-27 – Aussie remains in calm waters

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AUD/USD showed limited gains for a second successive week. The upcoming week has just two events. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australia created an impressive 178.8 thousand jobs in October, defying the forecast of 26.7 thousand. However, the unemployment rate edged up from 6.9% to 7.0%. Retail sales rebounded in September with a gain of 1.6%, ending a nasty streak of four straight declines.

In the US, the Empire State Manufacturing Index fell from 10.5 to 6.3, as the rate of expansion slowed for a second straight month. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 26.3, down from 32.3 points. Retail sales fell sharply in October, which weighed on the US dollar. Headline retail sales fell from 1.9% to 0.3%. This was the weakest gain since April. The core reading slowed to 0.2%, down from 1.5% beforehand.

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AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Construction Work Done: Wednesday, 00:30. This indicator is released each quarter, magnifying the impact of each release. It hasn’t posted a gain since 2018, reflecting ongoing weakness in the construction industry. The indicator came in at -0.7% in Q2 and the estimate for Q3 stands at -1.8%.
  2. Private Capital Expenditure: Thursday, 00:30. New capital expenditures have posted declines for six successive quarters. The second-quarter decline was particularly steep, at -5.9%, and the forecast for Q3 is -1.5%.
  • All times are GMT

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.7595.

0.7421 is an important monthly resistance line.

0.7332 is next.

0.7242 (mentioned last week) remains a weak support level.

0.7105 is next.

0.7008 is protecting the symbolic 0.7000 level. It is the final support level for now.

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I am neutral on AUD/USD

The US dollar has fallen out of favor in recent weeks, but the Australian dollar could also hit some bumps, as weak global demand continues to weigh on Australia’s export sector.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.