The Australian dollar continues to lose ground against the US currency, and lost close to a cent on the week. AUD/USD closed the week at 0.9060. This week highlights include Consumer Sentiment and Employment Change. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian releases continue to struggle, as Retail Sales and Building Permits, both key events, missed their estimates. The Aussie also lost ground as the broadly stronger US dollar got a boost late in the week from a strong Non-Farm Payroll release. Will AUD/USD lose the 0.90 line? Updates: The Aussie began the week with an attempt to recover, challenging the 0.91 level. However, ANZ Job Advertisements disappointed with a fourth consecutive drop, this time by 1.8%. More: Dollar love. Fresh technical analysis: AUD/USD Bearish Trend Poised to Test Further Lows – by James Chen NAB Business Confidence rose to 0 points, it’s best showing since April. Chinese CPI jumped from 2.1% to 2.7%, surpassing the estimate of 2.5%. Westpac Consumer Sentiment and Chinese Trade Balance, both key indicators, will be released on Wednesday. AUD/USD continues to rally this week, and was trading at 0.9178. The Aussie slides from the highs as the dollar rallies on a strong JOLTS number, and trades below resistance at 0.9150. Technical Analysis: AUD and NZD are weakening. AUD/USD went all the way up to 0.9234 before sliding back down under 0.9180. Chinese trade data was bad, and showed that the economic giant is importing less and exporting less. Westpac Consumer Sentiment dropped -0.1%, a very disappointing reading after a healthy 4.7% gain in the previous release. See how to trade the Australian employment change with AUD/USD FOMC Minutes send a confusing message and weaken the US dollar. Bernanke then sends the dollar plunging with dovish comments on the US economy. AUD/USD is battling around 0.92. AUD/USD rushes all the way to 0.93 on the Bernanke burnout, but is unable to sustain the gains as the dollar makes a comeback in the European session. Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 5.7%, and the economy gains 10.3K jobs, but many of them are part time. MI Inflation Expectations climbed 2.6%, its highest level in 2013. Home Loans, a key event, will be released on Friday. Home loans rose by 1.8%, below expectations of a 2.3% rise. The Bernanke effect is going away and AUD/USD is already under 0.91. More: Fearing the Fed AUD/USD falls to a new multi-year low, getting very close to 0.90. Update: AUD/USD dips below 0.90 to 0.8998 before bouncing back higher. AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30. This employment indicator has not looked good, with only one monthly gain in 2013. The indicator had its worst showing of the year in June, with a sharp decline of -2.4%. Will we see some improvement in the upcoming release? NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30. This indicator is based on a survey of 350 businesses which are asked to rate business conditions. The indicator has reeled off two consecutive readings below zero, which indicates worsening conditions. The markets will be hoping for a turnaround in the July release. Chinese CPI: Tuesday, 1:30. This key inflation index dropped to 2.1% in June, well below the estimate of 2.5%. The markets are expecting a rebound this time around, with an estimate of 2.5%. The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese releases, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. This indicator measures consumer confidence. This is important as a confident consumer will be more likely to make purchases, and consumer spending is critical for economic growth. The indicator tends to move sharply in either direction. The indicator bounced back after a steep decline in May, and posted a strong 4.7% gain in June. Will the indicator repeat with another strong showing? Chinese Trade Balance: Wednesday, Tentative. This is a key release, but traders should note that the data is not always reliable and is prone to early leaks. China posted a trade surplus of $20.4 billion in June, slightly below the estimate. The forecast for the July reading calls for a higher surplus, with an estimate of $27.8 billion. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks: Wednesday, 7:30. Debelle will address a financial forum in Sydney. Analysts will be listening carefully for any clues regarding the RBA’s future monetary policy. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. Inflation Expectations helps predict actual inflation figures, and is released on a monthly basis. The indicator has been very steady in 2013, and has posted gains of 2.3% for the past two readings. Employment Change: Thursday, 1:30. This is one of the most important economic releases, and can affect the movement of AUD/USD. In June, the indicator pointed to a gain of 1.1 thousand, and this modest rise easily surpassed the estimate of -9.8 thousand. The markets are expecting a very small gain this time around, with a forecast of 0.3 thousand. Will the indicator again beat the estimate? The Unemployment Rate will be released at the same time. The rate has come in at 5.6% for the past two releases, and the July forecast stands at 5.6%. Home Loans: Friday, 1:30. Home Loans provides a snapshot of activity in the housing industry, and is an important gauge of consumer spending. The indicator dropped in June from 5.2% to 0.8%, and this was well short of the estimate of 2.1%. The markets are expecting better news in the July release, with an estimate of 2.3%. Will the indicator meet or beat the prediction? AUD/USD Technical Analysis AUD/USD continued to point downward this week and the critical 0.90 line is now in striking distance. The pair opened at 0.9142 and quickly touched a high of 0.9254. The pair then dropped to a low of 0.9038, briefly breaking through support at 0.9041 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 0.9060. Technical lines from top to bottom: We begin with strong resistance at 0.9634. This line saw some action in May, and the pair has continued to drop sharply since then. 0.9549 is the next line of resistance. This is followed by 0.9428, which had a busy month in June. Prior to that, this line had provided strong support, and had remained intact since October 2011. 0.9283 follows, and this resistance line has strengthened as the pair trades at lower levels. Below, 0.9171 started the week as a weak resistance line, but has gained some breathing room as the Aussie continues to slide. AUD/USD is receiving support at 0.9041. This line is protecting the psychologically important 90 level. The line has weakened as the pair pushes ever lower, and it could be tested early next week. 0.8893 was last breached in August 2010, as the Australian dollar put together a strong rally which saw it climb above the 1.10 line. This is followed by 0.8747, which has remained in place since July 2010. The final support line for now is at 0.8550, which saw a lot of action in mid-2010 and has remained intact since that time. I continue to be bearish on AUD/USD. AUD/USD continues to be a tale of two currencies. The Aussie can’t seem to find its footing, while the US dollar has been looking strong. Talk of tapering QE and solid US numbers, notably employment data, has seen the dollar improve against all the major currencies. We could see the Australian dollar break below the psychologically important 0.90 level. The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis. Further reading: For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook. For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast. For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast. For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast. For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast. Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer. Kenny's Google Profile View All Post By Kenny Fisher AUD/USD ForecastMinorsWeekly Forex Forecasts share Read Next Dollar love Yohay Elam 9 years The Australian dollar continues to lose ground against the US currency, and lost close to a cent on the week. AUD/USD closed the week at 0.9060. This week highlights include Consumer Sentiment and Employment Change. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian releases continue to struggle, as Retail Sales and Building Permits, both key events, missed their estimates. The Aussie also lost ground as the broadly stronger US dollar got a boost late in the week from a strong Non-Farm Payroll release. Will AUD/USD lose the 0.90 line? 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