The meeting minutes from the recent FOMC meeting don’t provide things we didn’t know. While “several” saw QE tapering warranted likely soon, “many” members indicated that further improvement in the job market before any move on QE. — updates coming
The US dollar was retreating along the day, towards the publication. EUR/USD rose from the lows of under 1.2780 and traded at around 1.2850. GBP/USD was at around 1.4920 and USD/JPY was around 100.37. The US dollar reacts with an initial fall, but it is reversing some of the losses.
EUR/USD rose as high as 1.2891 before retreating back to 1.2860. GBP/USD made a similar move.
So, the dollar is lower, but only marginally after the initial fall. Will we see a full reversal and a stronger US dollar?
Update: it took the markets around 15 minutes, but the stronger reaction came: the dollar is crashing across the board.
Update 2: Bernanke sends the dollar crashing down with dovish comments – EUR/USD edging towards 1.30 and GBP/USD is above 1.50.
The Federal Reserve decided to leave policy unchanged but did provide significant changes: the first was a change in the statement: downside risks were seen to be diminishing.
The second and more important one was what Bernanke said: that QE could be tapered down later in the year, and that QE would be fully stopped when the unemployment rate reaches 7%. A potential end to QE was seen at mid 2014.
This decision, see as a heads on for tapering in September 2013 and the end of QE in 2014, boosted the US dollar when it was made back in June 19th. The next meeting is later in the month, but there is no scheduled press conference. The September meeting will be closely watched.
Ben Bernanke will be giving an academic speech at 20:10 GMT. He might also say something about the next moves. And, he will be asked questions by the academics.
An important indicator for jobs will be released tomorrow. See how to trade the US jobless claims with EUR/USD.