AUD/USD Forecast June 19-23 2017

AUD/USD  posted strong gains for a second straight week. The pair closed at 0.7616, its highest weekly close since March. This week’s key event is the RBA minutes.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Aussie received a boost as the Employment Change was much stronger than expected. In the US, the Fed raised rates  and the rate statement was more hawkish than expected, disregarding  lower inflation.

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AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. RBA Governor Philip Lowe Speaks: Sunday, 23:30. Debelle will speak at an event in Canberra. A speech that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
2. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Monday, 1:30.  This consumer spending indicator posted a weak gain of 0.3% in April. Will we see an improvement in the May report?
3. CB Leading Index: Monday, 14:30. The index has been steady, and edged up to 0.5% in April. This marked a 4-month gain.
4. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes:  Tuesday, 1:30. This is the key event of the week. The minutes provide details of the RBA meeting earlier in June, at which the bank held rates at 1.50%.
5. HPI: Tuesday, 1:30. This quarterly index provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing sector. In Q4, the indicator jumped 4.1%, well above the estimate of 2.4%. The forecast for Q1 stands at 2.2%.
6. MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:30. This indicator continues to hover close to the zero level. In May, the index declined 0.1%. Will the index move into positive territory in June?

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD  opened the week at 0.7530 and dropped to a low of 0.7521. The pair then reversed directions and climbed to a high of 0.7636, breaking above resistance at 0.7605 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 0.7616.