AUD/USD Outlook – August 22-26

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The Aussie made a significant recovery attempt, but couldn’t cope with the global storm. The upcoming week is relatively light in terms of indicators, but that doesn’t mean it will boring. Here is an outlook for the events awaiting us, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Meeting minutes released by the RBA have shown that a rate hike was on the cards in the last meeting. The chances are now lower. Nevertheless, the stability in global stock markets and the pause in the European debt crisis (thanks to Trichet’s bond buying) support the recovery down under.

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:AUD USD Chart August 22 26 2011

  1. Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 2:30. Australia’s main trade partner is also slowing down, like the rest of the world. This purchasing managers’ index is released before the official one and is considered quite accurate. According to HSBC, manufacturing is contracting in China, with the index dropping below the critical 50 point mark to 48.9 last month. Another drop is expected now.
  2. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:00. This indicator disappointed last month with a drop of 0.1%, the second such drop in three months. This indicator, based on 7 others, tends to move the Aussie even though many of its components are already known. A rise is expected this time.
  3. Construction Work Done: Wednesday, 1:30. This quarterly indicator deals with a fragile sector that might be plunging into deep contraction. In the past three quarters, this indicator disappointed and even fell. Q2 is expected to see a rise of 1.1% after a small rise of 0.7% in Q1.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie began the week with a nice rise. It was initially capped by 1.0515, and eventually by the round number of 1.06 (a new line that didn’t appear last week). From there it turned around and fell quite a lot, closing not far from last week’s close.

Technical levels, from top to bottom:

We start from 1.0920 which is distant resistance. It cushioned the fall of the pair in the past. 1.088 proved to be a strong line in recently, separating ranges. Its role is minor now.

1.0775 was a key resistance level before the surge, and the top border of long running range. A few recovery attempts failed to breach this strong line and it marked the beginning of the fall. The round number of 1.07 was temporary support. It is a minor line.

The round number of 1.06 capped the pair nicely and is a new resistance line on the graph. 1.0515 worked as another cap and is a minor resistance line at the moment.

The round number of 1.04 worked as support and then turned into resistance. It’s an important line. 1.0314 was a stepping stone on the way up at the beginning of the year, and worked well in the opposite direction.

Further below, the 2010 high of 1.0254 is support, and its not too far. The round number of 1.02 capped a range before the pair took off in the previous round.

1.0120 was a nice cushion during the recovery and is further support. Further minor support is at 1.0070.

AUD/USD parity is the obvious support line, even though it was breached. Below parity, 0.9930 is the next support line, before the bottom border of the long term range at 0.98.

I remain neutral on AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar is fighting the headwinds in the global economy relatively well. This is enough for not falling, but not enough to rise back up.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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