AUD/USD Outlook for April 18-22

After seemingly endless gains, the Aussie consolidated its gains. The upcoming week features important inflation data that will impact the next rate decision. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

China, Australia’s main trade partner, continues growing at a strong pace. This provided support for the Aussie in the past week. Chinese inflation is also on the rise. Will this inflation be seen in Australia as well? Let’s start:

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

1. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. Glenn Stevens and his colleagues were relatively optimistic in the recent rate decision (which left the rate unchanged at 4.75%), pushing away talks about a rate cut in 2011. We’ll now get the full text of the recent meeting. This usually rocks the Aussie. It’s expected to be positive this time.
2. MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:30. The Melbourne Institute provides an overview of the economy, mixing 9 indicators – most of them already made public. Nevertheless, this indicator still moves the currency. A disappointing drop of 0.1% was reported last time. A return to gains, which usually characterize this indicator, is expected now.
3. Import Prices: Wednesday, 1:30. This is a second tier inflation indicator, but since the government publishes official data only once per quarter, such figures fill the gap. Last month saw a big dip of 3.8%, after a few months of gains. A small rise is expected now, 0.7%.
4. PPI: Thursday, 1:30. As aforementioned, the government releases these numbers only once per quarter, and now the day has arrived. Producer prices serve as a very important warm-up to consumer prices, and also tend to rock the Aussie. After a big rise in Q3, prices were almost unchanged in Q4, with PPI rising only 0.1%. A more serious rise is predicted now – 1%. The Aussie will shake a lot, no matter the result.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie fell at the beginning of the week, but bounced off the 1.04 line (mentioned last week). It then climbed and bounced off the 1.0580 line once again.

Looking up, 1.0580 is a new cap, marking very high levels. Above this line we meet unchartered territory, with 1.07 being a potential barrier.

Looking down, 1.05 is only a minor line of support, after working as a pivotal line. It’s followed by 1.04, which proved to be a very strong line just now.

Moving lower, 1.0315 was a stepping stone for the Aussie on the way up, and now serves as minor support.  Lower we already meet strong support at the peak of 2010 – 1.0254

Further below, the pair will find a cushion at 1.0180, which was the previous high in November, and worked since then as a tough resistance line.  It’s followed by 1.0080 was often support when the Aussie was trading at these highs and also worked as support.

The clear line of parity lies below, but it is weaker than earlier, though still of importance.  Under parity, we find  0.9940, which provided support upon dips under parity.

Further below lower we find 0.98, previously the lowest level in 2011, but this was temporarily breached now just two weeks. It’s followed by 0.9724, which provided support back in November, and proved its strength now as well. There are further lines lower, but they’re too far now.

I turn from neutral to bullish on AUD/USD

The Aussie took a break after a wild ride. But its gains are justified – Australia has a high interest rate, a strong labor market and trades with China, that continues to grow at a rapid pace. It seems that the overbought conditions are behind us.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.