After a busy week, the Aussie closed the week significantly higher. The upcoming week consists of the meeting minutes from the last rate decision and few other events. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
Australia continues to enjoy a steaming job market, as seen once again this week, with the surprising drop in the unemployment rate. Will this push the RBA to another rate hike? Let’s start:
- Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. In their last rate decision, Glenn Stevens and his colleagues from the RBA decided to pause, and left the interest rate unchanged at 4.5%. This move was expected, but the questions regarding the next moves remained unchanged. The protocols will enable us to see where the wind is blowing.
- Ric Battellino talks: The RBA Deputy Governor will begin talking on Tuesday at 3:20 at a conference in Sydney. Despite the rate hikes, the economy is still showing strong growth. Battellino might speak his mind about the situation, and possibly hint about further moves by the RBA.
- MI Leading Index: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Melbourne Institute bases this index on 9 indicators. While some of the indicators have already been published, the release by this private establishment still tends to rock the Aussie. Last month saw a jump of 0.9%, significantly higher than previous months. We’ll probably see another strong rise this time.
- Housing Starts: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. This is a lagging indicator, released a long time after related housing figures have already been released (building approvals, home loans), but it still tends to have an impact, as it’s a quarterly release. Q3 and Q4 of 2009 were very strong, with big jumps in housing starts. The rise of 15.1% seen last month won’t return this time, but housing starts are still expected to grow.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie continued the drop that followed the Non-Farm Payrolls and tested the critical 0.8066 line once again. After another bounce, the road up was paved – it surged above 0.8240, struggled temporarily around 0.8360 and finally closed just under 0.85.
The Aussie is now bound between 0.8360, a new line that didn’t appear on last week’s outlook, and 0.8567, which is a very strong line of resistance. 0.8567 is a pivotal line that worked as both support and resistance, during the past year.
Further up, 0.8735, which was the low line in December, is the next minor line of resistance. It’s followed by the round number of 0.88, which was support line several times in the past.
Even higher, 0.90 is the next round number that provided support, and it’s followed by 0.9135, the lower border of a high range that AUD/USD was in April.
Looking down below 0.8360, the next line is 0.8240, which worked as a line of resistance about a year ago, and it’s followed by 0.8066, which was tested just this week, and was a triple bottom.
Below the year-to-date low of 0.8066, there are important lines at 0.77 and 0.7450, but they are quite far at the moment.
I continue being bullish on the Aussie.
As I wrote last week, the Australian fundamentals won over the European worries, and the Aussie enjoyed a 300+ pip rally. This trend should continue, with 0.8567 being a critical line of resistance.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro/Dollar, look into the EUR USD Forecast.
- For the British Pound (sterling), read the GBP/USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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