AUD/USD Outlook: June 18-22

The Australian dollar  continued to climb, and  pushed past the important parity level. The pair closed at 1.0051, its  highest level since mid-May.  The upcoming week has six scheduled  releases. Here is an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

After its deep slide in May, the Australian dollar has rebounded in June.  In addition to strong GDP and employment data earlier in  the month, the aussie is benefiting from  the turmoil and uncertainty  in the EZ and weaker data coming out of the US.

Updates: New Motor Vehicle Sales looked strong, as the indicator jumped 2.4%. The aussie  continued its upward movement  during weekend trading. AUD/USD  was trading at 1.0087. The central bank released its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which provides details of the  Reserve Bank Board’s  most recent meeting.  Two Leading Indices will be published on Wednesday. The aussie continues to gain against the US  dollar, as AUD/USD was trading at 1.0144. The CB Leading Index plummeted, dropping by 1.4%. It was the index’s worst reading in over five years. The MI Leading Index fared better, rising by 0.5%. Housing Starts were awful, declining by 12.6%, a sixth-month low. The aussie shrugged off the weak releases, as AUD/USD was up, trading at 1.0193. The RBA released its quarterly bulletin. The report is unlikely to affect AUD/USD, since much of the contents have already been released. The aussie was down slightly, as AUD/USD was trading at 1.0168.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:    

1. Greek elections:  Sunday, initial results expected before markets open and the impact is set to last for a long time.  The Australian dollar is expected to mirror the euro, at least at the beginning of the week, depending on the outcome: a pro-bailout victory(AUD/USD rises at first), an anti-bailout victory (AUD/USD falls at first) or a hung parliament (AUD/USD falls slowly). The moves in this pair could be sharper than in the euro. See details here:  how to trade the Greek elections
   New Motor Vehicle Sales: Monday, 1:30. New Motor Vehicle Sales fell by 0.7% in May. This was only the second time this year that the indicator has been in negative territory. Will  it rebound in June?
2. Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. This  release is a detailed report of the most recent meeting of the  Reserve Bank Board.  A report which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
3. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:00. This composite index is based on seven economic indicators. The index has shown very little movement recently, with a 0.2% increase in May, and a flat reading of 0.0% in April.
4. MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 12:30. This index, based on nine economic indicators, has been above the zero level since January. The May reading came in at 0.4%.
5. Housing Starts: Wednesday, 1:30. Housing Starts have fallen for the past three readings, with the May release at an awful -6.9%. The June forecast is for a further  decline of -2%.
6. RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 1:30. This report is released by the central bank on a quarterly basis. Although it generally does not contain new information, a release that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened at 0.9984. The pair dropped to a low of 0.9850, and then reversed direction, as it reached a high of 1.0090, breaking resistance at 1.0080 (discussed last week).  AUD/USD closed the week  at 1.0051.

We begin with strong resistance at 1.0552. Next, there is resistance at 1.0482. This line has held firm since March. Below, there is resistance just above the 1.04 line, at 1.0402. This line saw a lot of movement  before the aussie’s sharp slide in May.  Close by, 1.0340 is the next line of resistance. Below, the line of 1.0230  has held firm as a resistance line since  mid-May.  This is followed by resistance at 1.0174.Next is the line of 1.0080, which  was briefly breached this week  as    AUD/USD continued to move upwards.

The important parity line is now providing the pair with weak support. The next support level is 0.9917, which just last week was in a resistance role. Below, there is support at  0.9860. This is followed by 0.9780, which has  strengthened as the pair trades at higher levels.

The next support line is 0.9668. This is followed by support at 0.9580.  Since  dropping to this  level in the first week of June, AUD/USD has rebounded in impressive fashion. Next, there is strong support just above the 0.94 level, at 0.9405. Our final support line for now is at 0.9294, which has held firm since September 2011.

I am neutral on AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar continues to rally in June, and has gained about two cents against the greenback this month. The economic picture in Australia looks a bit brighter, and stronger data coming out of China, Austalia’s number one trading partner, has also help the aussie.  However, the  situation in the Euro-zone continues  to be of great concern, and we could see substantial fluctuations in  the currency markets following the June 17th  elections in Greece.

The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.