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The Australian dollar was hit by global fears and retreated, still remaining in range. The upcoming week consists of key interesting figures from Australia and also from China. Here is an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD, now in lower ground.

The end of QE2 in the US and the playing down of QE3 took their toll on the Aussie. Money printing in the US sure helped the Australian dollar. Also the intensifying Greek crisis is hurting it.

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:AUD USD Chart June 27 July 1 2011

  1. Private Sector Credit: Thursday, 1:30. More credit means more economic activity. Unfortunately, after a few months of strong growth, private sector credit stalled in Australia last month. A small rise is expected now from the RBA.
  2. AIG Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 23:30. The Australian Industry Group provides an unofficial purchasing managers’ index. In the past 3 months, it has shown that the Australian manufacturing sector has been contracting – the score is under 50. A small drop from last month’s 47.7 points is expected now.
  3. HIA New Home Sales: Friday. The  Housing Industry Association in Australia has been quite positive lately. The amount of new home sales rose in the past 4 months, sometimes faster and sometimes slower. A drop is likely now.
  4. Chinese  Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 1:00. Australia’s main trade partner is still growing and the slowdown has stabilized, according to recent figures. The purchasing managers index rose to 52 points after a few months of drops. A tick down is likely now.
  5. Commodity Prices: Friday, 6:30. As an exporter of commodities, especially metals and coal, any change in prices rocks the economy and the currency. A year-over-year is expected again, but lower than last month’s 29.4%.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar managed to hold above the 1.05 line (mentioned last week) throughout most of the week, but it couldn’t hold on to it at the end. Also the top of the range was lower, and fell short of 1.0670.

Technical levels, from top to bottom:

The  float era high of 1.1012 is already a definite line of resistance, just above the round number of 1.10.  1.0850 had a chance to work in both directions – capping the pair on the way up, and later temporary halting the pair on the way down. It proved to be quite strong just now and is of high importance.

1.0775 was a key resistance level in the past weeks, and it remains a very tough resistance line.  1.0715 capped the pair more than once in the past week, and also had the same role at the beginning of May.

1.0670 is a weak pivotal line. 1.0580 turns into strong resistance, after it was broken. It capped the pair for long days. Its role is minor now after being pierced through on the way down.  The round number of 1.05 managed to cushion the recent fall, and returns to be of importance..

1.0440 proved to be a very strong support line after being a swing low a month and also recently. The pair closed above this line.  1.0390 was a distinctive line that worked in both directions at the beginning of April and is weak support now.

A stepping stone for the Aussie on its way up was 1.0315.  It is likely to be a stepping stone on the way down if the pair collapses. An important cushion is 1.0254, the 2010 high that is still below, but getting closer.

I remain neutral on AUD/USD.

No QE3 in the US means pressure on commodity prices. In addition, China is slowing down. On the other hand, the Australian economy is still strong, and the pair hasn’t fallen out of range. 1.0440 is the critical level.

Further reading: