AUD/USD Outlook – June 28 – July 2

Retail Sales as well as building approvals are the highlights in a busy Australian week. Will the Aussie continue north? Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

The Chinese move on the yuan is great for Australia, that exports commodities to China. With a stronger yuan, the Chinese can buy more. As the dust settled from  this move, the political problems in Australia hurt the Aussie. With the new Prime Minister sworn in, the focus returns to fundamentals:

1. HIA New Home Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment. The Housing Industry Association showed a bit leap in prices last month – 6.2%. This comes despite the rate hikes that partially cooled the Australian housing sector. A smaller rise is expected this time.
2. MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT. The official inflation figures are released only once a quarter. So, this unofficial release from the Melbourne Institute tends to moves the Aussie. After rises of 0.4% or 0.5% in recent months, a weaker rise in prices is predicted this time.
3. Private Sector Credit: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. More lending means more economic activity, but last month’s small rise of 0.2% was quite disappointing for the Aussie. This followed 4 stronger months. A return to higher growth rates will probably be reported by the RBA this time.
4. AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Wednesday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group publishes a PMI-like indicator that has been above 50 in the past 5 months. This means expectations for economic expansion. The drop from the high 59.8 points to 56.3 last month is expected to be followed by a stable number this time.
5. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Published on Thursday at 1:00 GMT. China is Australia’s main trade partner. Growth in Chinese manufacturing translates into more imports from Australia. After peaking at 55.7 points, this Chinese indicator fell to 53.9 points this time. A rise is expected this time.
6. Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. This major consumer-related indicator rose by 0.6% last month, showing confidence for a second month in a row, despite the rate hikes. A smaller rise is expected this time.
7. Commodity Prices: Published on Thursday at 6:30 GMT. Australia’s commodity-oriented economy enjoyed a recovery in commodity prices in June. This will be reflected in this  indicator that is expected to show a year-over-year  growth rate of over 50%, boosting the Aussie.
8. Building Approvals: Published on Friday at 1:30 GMT. This indicator is very volatile, and tends to have a strong impact on the Aussie. A drop of almost 15% was reported in approvals last month, but this was merely a correction for a 17% rise beforehand. A rise in approvals will empower the Aussie.

The Aussie’s crazy week began with a temporary jump above 0.8735 and then 0.88, but this changed quickly. The pair  deteriorated quickly and dipped below 0.86 before recovering and settling slightly higher than last week – at 0.8741. Note that most lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook.

Looking up, 0.88 continues to be a minor line of resistance, and the break above it was false. Higher, 0.90 is a round psychological number and also was a swing low in March.

Higher, 0.9135 was a very strong line of support when the pair was trading higher, and now works as resistance. The next important line far above is 0.9327, which was a strong line of resistance many times in the past.

Looking down, immediate support is found at 0.8735, which was December’s low, and worked as a line of resistance in the previous week. Lower, 0.8360 was a pivotal line a few weeks ago.

Lower, 0.8240 was a strong resistance line in 2009 and worked when the pair was trading lower recently. Below, the year-to-date low of 0.8066 provides strong support. That’s quite far now.

I remain bullish on the Aussie.

The political crisis that rocked the Aussie is over, with a new Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, quickly assuming office. With the revaluation of the Chinese yuan, a high interest rate and strong economy, the Australian dollar continues to have good reasons to rise.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

Ready to connect with real Forex traders? Currensee is the first Forex trading social network.