After making an impressing comeback, the Aussie now expects quite a busy week, with building approvals and Chinese manufacturing being the highlights. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The Australian dollar reached fresh record highs against the US dollar. Will it continue or rest?
AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
- HIA New Home Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment. The Housing Industry Association has shown a strong rise in sales of new homes last month, 2.5%, after two months of drops. A small rise is expected now.
- Building Approvals: Thursday, 00:30. The number of building approvals is a more important housing sector. Last month, it was very disappointing, with a plunge of 15.9%. The Australian real estate sector has been struggling and has led to speculation of interest rate cuts. But this time, a correction is expected in this volatile index,and a small rise is likely.
- Retail Sales: Thursday, 00:30. While slightly overshadowed by the building approvals release, this still is a very important gauge of consumer confidence. Last month saw a relatively strong rise in the volume of sales – 0.4%. Slower growth is expected now.
- Private Sector Credit: Thursday, 00:30. More credit means stronger economic activity. Growth rates have been around 0.2% – 0.3% in recent months. This stable indicator is likely to post similar growth now.
- AIG Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 22:30. The Australian Industry Group surveys around 200 manufacturers for this PMI-like index. After many depressing months, the index finally climbed above 50 points, meaning economic expansion in the manufacturing sector. We’re expecting a similar number to last month’s 51.1 points.
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 00:00. Australia’s main trade partner has a very strong influence of the Aussie. China’s manufacturing growth has slowed down, according to the government’s plans. A small rise from last month’s 52.2 points is expected now.
- Commodity Prices: Friday, 5:30. Australia’s economy is commodity-oriented, making changes in commodity prices very important for the currency. A small rise is predicted now.
* All times are GMT
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
Aussie/Dollar gradually climbed during the week, and stopped to rest only under the 1.0180 line (discussed last week). After breaking this line it also hesitated under the previous historic high of 1.0254, but eventually broke above this line and closed at 1.0258.
Looking down, we find many lines of support. The initial one is at 1.0254, the level reached at the end of 2010 that was the previous historic high. It’s followed by 1.0180, which was the previous high in November, and worked since then as a tough resistance line.
Lower, 1.0080 was often the cushion when the Aussie was trading at these highs and also worked as support. It’s followed by the obvious line of parity, which is weaker than earlier, but is still of importance.
Below parity, we find 0.9940, which provided support upon dips under parity. Further minor support is at 0.9866, which had a role in recent months.
Even lower we find 0.98, previously the lowest level in 2011, but this was temporarily breached now just two weeks. It’s followed by 0.9724, which provided support back in November, and proved its strength now as well. There are further lines lower, but they’re too far now.
Looking up, there isn’t much. We have the round number of 1.03, which was almost reached on Friday as the first resistance line. We can also look at 1.0320, 70 pips above the previous resistance (equal to 70 pips gap between 1.0180 and 1.0250) as another minor line of resistance.
1.05 is also a round number in the distance, but it’s unchartered territory.
I am neutral on AUD/USD.
After running so fast in the past week, it is more likely to take a breather and trade more choppily on all the data, than immediately continue higher.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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