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Weekly Forex Forecasts

Forex Weekly Outlook – May 4 – 8 2009

Big week ahead in forex trading: Non-Farm Payrolls, Rate decision from Europe, Britain and Australia and employment figures from all over the globe promise an exciting week. Also note the Stress Test results. Let’s dive into the main events for this week:

Monday, May 4th:  Both British and Japanese banks are on holiday, so trading will start slowly. German Retail Sales are expected to stop falling. In the US,  Pending Home Sales are predicted to rise by a modest 0.1%.

Tuesday, May 5th: Australian  Building Approvals are expected to continue rising. This is a preliminary event to the new  Cash Rate in Australia, expected to stay at 3%, the highest in the West. Also note the accompanying  RBA Rate Statement. Will the AUD/USD continue to rise?

In Britain, more housing data is expected through the  Halifax HPI which is expected to continue falling. A related figure, Construction PMI, is predicted to rise.

In the US,  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 42.1. This may be overshadowed by a testament by Ben Bernanke in Washington.

Wednesday, May 6th: Australian Retail Sales are expected to turn positive after falling last month. The surplus in Trade Balance is expected to shrink.

In New Zealand, the quarterly  Labor Cost Index is expected to continue rising.

Britain features the Services PMI, which might go one step forward, to 46.3. European Retail Sales are predicted to be barely positive this time.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is a preliminary figure preceding the NFP: expectations are for a drop of 644K, significantly better than last time.

In Canada,  Building Permits are expected to rise by 2.6%, after the devastating fall of 15.6% (!) last time. Also note the Canadian  Ivey PMI which expected to squeeze, and a speech by BOC Governor Mark Carney.

Also in Switzerland, the head of the central bank will give an important speech:  SNB Governing Board Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth might shed some light over the Swiss economy.

Near the end of the day, employment figures will be released in New Zealand:  Employment Change is expected to fall, while  Unemployment Rate is predicted to soar from 4.7% to 5.3% in the far land of the kiwi.

Thursday, May 7th: Following New Zealand, Australia’s  Employment Change is also expected to fall, while  Unemployment Rate is expected to rise from 5.7% to 5.9%.

Britain is expected to leave the  Official Bank Rate at the historic low of 0.5%. So, the accompanying  MPC Rate Statement will be much more interesting, especially after Darling’s budget hurt the Pound.

In Europe, Jean-Claude Trichet can’t avoid dropping the European  Minimum Bid Rate to 1%, after escaping it last time. Usually the  ECB Press Conference also shakes the EUR/USD.

American  Unemployment Claims aren’t expected to be shocking, staying at around 639K. Also note the  Prelim Non-farm Productivity,  Prelim Unit Labor Costs and  Consumer Credit.  

19 of America’s banks are expected to get a report: Stress Tests are due today. The results and the market’s reaction will be very interesting to watch. Ben Bernanke will speak again, this time in a less official event.

Friday, May 8th:  RBA Monetary Policy Statement will complete the Australian rate decision on Tuesday, giving a broad view of the Australian economy.

Swiss  Unemployment Rate is expected to rise from 3.3% to 3.4%, and might move the USD/CHF. In Britain,  PPI Input is expected to rise very slightly, by 0.7%, igniting fears of deflation. German  Industrial Production is expected to fall again…

In Canada, employment figures are released:  Employment Change is expected to be negative, while the  Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise from 8% to 8.3%.  Housing Starts are predicted to shrink to 140K.

Non-Farm Employment Change, king of forex indicators, is expected to be somewhat improved, falling this time by “only” 615K jobs, about 50K better than last time. Here at forex crunch, there will be a special preview towards this event, that might show small winds of change…

The accompanying figure for the Non-Farm Payrolls is the  Unemployment Rate, which is predicted to rise 8.9%. Also note the  Average Hourly Earnings which are expected to rise.

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Happy Forex Trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.