Home Forex Weekly Outlook – May 11 – 15 2009
Weekly Forex Forecasts

Forex Weekly Outlook – May 11 – 15 2009

The upcoming week in forex trading provides important indicators throughout the week. Note the Trade Balance on Tuesday, British employment figures and American Retail Sales on Wednesday,  and a big Friday with German GDP, American CPI and more. Let’s dive into the major events this week:

Monday, May 11th: The week starts slowly in forex trading. French Industrial Production is expected fall of 0.4%. Ben Bernanke will speak towards the end of the day, and might say something interesting in response to audience questions.

Tuesday, May 12th: Australian Home Loans are expected to be on the rise, by 4.5%. Later in Australia, the  Annual Budget Release will draw attention in Australia’s strong economy.

In Britain,  Manufacturing Production is predicted to fall by 0.8%. Also note the British Trade Balance.

Both Canada and the US will release their Trade Balance. The releases will shake the USD/CAD.

Near the end of the day, the  RBNZ Financial Stability Report will be revealed in New Zealand. The NZD/USD could seriously shake.

Wednesday, May 13th: Many figures in Britain today –  Claimant Count Change is predicted to rise to 81.5K. Together with the official Unemployment rate 6.7% to 6.9%), they are expected to showing a growing problem in the UK.

Later in the UK, the  BOE Inflation Report will indicate if Britain is indeed out of the deflation zone. Also note a speech by BoE governor Mervyn King.

American Retail Sales (and Core Retail Sales) are expected to stand still after falling and falling.

Thursday, May 14th: A speech by  SNB Governing Board Member Thomas Jordan may move the USD/CHF, as well as the PPI which is expected to turn positive in Switzerland.

American PPI is alos expected to turn positive for a change. The Unemployment Claims are probably going to stay above 600K, despite better the improving job market. As expected, Non-Farm Payrolls were better than expected.

Retail Sales in New Zealand will stay stable.  Core Machinery Orders in Japan  will close the day.

Friday, May 15th:  German Prelim GDP is expected to dive by 3% in the first quarter, showing a deep recession. Also French Prelim GDP is predicted to fall – by 1.3%. The Flash GDP for the whole continent is expected to fall by 2.1%.

There are more important figures in Europe: CPI and Core CPI are not expected to move much.  

Swiss Retail Sales are expected to turn positive, and show a small rise. Did the SNB’s intervention work?

American CPI and Core CPI are expected to stay almost unchanged. Due to the recent rise in oil prices, these figures could be higher.

Another major release is the  TIC Long-Term Purchases, which shows where the dollars are going.  Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is on the rise as well.

These are the major economic indicators this week. As usual, I’ll post a daily outlook every day, detailing on the day’s events.

Have a great week!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.