Home EUR/USD Outlook – August 24-28 2009
EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD Outlook – August 24-28 2009

EUR/USD managed to close the week higher, sticking to the uptrend channel. This week’s  German Ifo Business Climate as well as 8 other indicators will set the direction of the Euro. Here’s an outlook for the Euro zone’s important events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD forex chart, with the uptrend channels marked:

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Friday’s good PMI data in Germany and France strengthened the notion of a cautious recovery in Europe, lead by the continent’s largest economies. These releases were inline with the European GDP for the second quarter, which also showed Germany and France leading the way for the old continent. Let’s review the 9 events awaiting us this week:

  1. Industrial New Orders : The first indicator for the Euro zone this week has a history of disappointing releases: it hasn’t risen for almost a year. Manufacturers increase their activity according to growing demand. Hopes are high again – for a rise of 1.7%. Published on Monday at 9:00 GMT.
  2. German Final GDP: After Germany surprised with growth in the second quarter in the preliminary reading, the final GDP makes economists and traders very curious. Did the German economy really grow in the second quarter? A confirmation of the 0.3% growth is expected. Published on Tuesday at 6:00 GMT.
  3. Belgium NBB Business Climate: Despite coming from one of the Euro zone’s smaller countries, this release is important since it survey about 6,000 businesses – quite a big sample. The businesses are asked to rate the current economic levels and especially the expectations for the near future. The index is negative since February 2008, and it isn’t expected to turn positive this time, which means that the economic conditions are still worsening. -19.7 is expected this time, after -22.8 last month.
  4. German Import Prices: While this isn’t the most important European indicator, the deepening deflation in Europe is causing sleepless nights for the continent’s economists.  German Import Prices  is another inflation-related release, and is isn’t expected to be positive – a fall of 0.9% is expected. Published on Wednesday at 6:00 GMT.
  5. German Ifo Business Climate: Similar to the Belgian release, this is also a highly regarded indicator due to a huge sample size. It’s the most important release this week, published on Wednesday at 8:00.
  6. German Prelim CPI: Did I already mention deflation? Well, the preliminary CPI in Germany holds high hopes – it isn’t expected to fall! But it also isn’t expected to rise…This publication doesn’t have an exact timing since it’s composed of the reports by all the German states. It’s published during Thursday. A fall in prices will hurt the EUR/USD.
  7. GfK German Consumer Climate: This is already a smaller survey, only 2000 consumers participate. It’s importance is due to it’s participants – the consumers. This consumer confidence indicator has surprised in the past two months, hitting 3.5 points last time. It’s predicted to take one step further and stand on 3.8 points. Published on Thursday at 6:00 GMT.
  8. M3 Money Supply: Contrary to the US, European stimulus plans haven’t printed too many Euros, so the rise in money supply is slowing down. After rising by 3.5% last month, it’s expected to rise by only 3.3% this time. Only a big surprise will push Trichet to begin thinking of a rate hike. Published on Thursday at 8:00 GMT.
  9. Consumer Confidence: The last survey of the week isn’t that important, but its timing near the end of of the week can make EUR/USD jump. Similar to other surveys, it has been negative for a long long time. At least it’s improving. After scoring -23 points last month, predictions are for a rise to -21. Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

After an initial fall, EUR/USD advanced nicely, and even managed to close the week higher, at 1.4324. This trading pattern is in line with the uptrend channels that were described in last week’s EUR/USD Outlook.

EUR/USD is trades under an uptrend resistance line that started at a peak in May and continued with a peak three weeks ago. Below, two uptrend support lines can be seen in the forex chart – the sharper one begins with a bottom in April and continues with a recent bottom. The second support line is milder: it begins in May and has three bottoms to support it along the way, making it stronger.

Both uptrend support lines create a narrowing channel with the resistance line. The lines aren’t parallel. The trend is upwards, but the narrowing channel suggests that it will be broken at some time.

The recent European data suggests that the EUR/USD is going up, but very cautiously.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.