Home Canadian Dollar Outlook – September 14-18 2009
Canadian Dollar Forecast

Canadian Dollar Outlook – September 14-18 2009

The loonie didn’t fully enjoy the fall of the US dollar, and didn’t get far away from the the resistance line. This week’s CPI and 6 other events will shape the direction of the loonie. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events in Canada and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD forex chart with support and resistance lines highlighted:


Building Permits hurt the loonie at the beginning of the week, and stopped it’s rally. The rate decision didn’t bring any surprises. This week, CPI is the king:

  1. Capacity Utilization Rate: The percentage of utilized resources impacts inflation directly. When there too many unused resources, prices tend to slide. Canada’s utilization rate has fallen in recent months, reaching 69.3% last time. It’s expected to fall further, up to 66%. Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT, and starts the week.
  2. Labor Productivity: This is also an inflation related factor. When productivity rose surprisingly last month by 0.3%, this meant that it costs less to produce products. This means that prices are heading down. Productivity is expected to rise by 0.2% this time. Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.
  3. John Murray talks: BOC Deputy Governor John Murray is expected to talk about Canada’s situation in the current economic crisis. How dependent is Canada on the US? Answers on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT.
  4. Manufacturing Sales: Manufacturers are at the core of the economy, responding to demand or the lack of it. Canada’s manufacturing sales have been unstable recently, with a rise of 1.9% last month, following a 6% beforehand. This time, a rise of 2.3% is expected. Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.
  5. CPI: After some preludes to the inflation figure, it comes on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. Consumer Price Index in Canada has been going up and down, with a drop of 0.3% last month. A rise in the same scale is predicted this time. Core CPI, excluding the most volatile items, has been more stable, with two consecutive months of standing at 0%. Core CPI is predicted to rise by 0.1% this time.
  6. Leading Index: This composite index of 10 important indicators is based on data that has already been released, but has an impact on policymakers. After a relatively strong rise of 0.4% last month, it’s predicted to rise by 0.5% this time.
  7. Wholesale Sales: The last indicator this week is released on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Wholesalers see the “big picture”, receiving orders from retails. Sales have surprised recently, and rose by 0.6% last month. Further growth is expected this month – a rise of 0.7%.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The greenback’s weakness at the beginning of the week helped the USD/CAD dive under 1.08, reaching a bottom of 1.0673. This was short lived. Bad figures sent pair rising up to 1.0879, while other currencies celebrated against the dollar. It then recovered and closed the week at 1.0766.

All in all, USD/CAD went lower. The resistance line of 1.08 is bruised and battered. I still marked it on the graph, but it won’t be there so long. Looking down, 1.0625 was August’s bottom and serves as a support line. Beyond that, a terrible collapse of the greenback will send the pair towards 1.0340.

Looking up, 1.1130 is a strong resistance line, that recently served as such. Beyond that, 1.1470 is out there, but seems highly unlikely.

Like in last week’s Canadian dollar outlook, I’m quite neutral on the direction of the loonie.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.