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EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD Outlook – January 11-15

Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: EUR/USD Forecast.

Non-Farm Payrolls didn’t move EUR/USD out of its range. This week features a rate decision in Europe and important inflation figures. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming week in Euroland, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

EUR USD Outlook

Also European unemployment reached 10%, and this weighs heavily on the Euro. At least prices began rising, as seen in the preliminary release. This week should see a confirmation of the rise in prices. Let’s start the review for 7 events in Europe. The technical analysis will follow.

  1. French Industrial Production: Published on Tuesday at 7:45 GMT. The continent’s second largest economy suffered from two disappointing drop in its industry’s output. Economists usually expected small changes, but the actual results were rather strong. A rise of 0.4% is predicted this time.
  2. French CPI: Published on Wednesday at 7:45 GMT. In the past three months, French prices have disappointed with slow advances of 0.1% or drops in prices. Contrary to Germany, inflation is still quite asleep in France. A modest rise of 0.3% is expected.
  3. German Final CPI: Published on Thursday at 7:00 GMT, a few hours before the rate decision. While this is a late figure, the timing makes it important. Germany’s prices picked up in December, according to the preliminary release – 0.7%. A confirmation of this number will probably be seen, and might put a rate hike in European policymakers’ horizon.
  4. Industrial Production: Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. The all-European figure is  preceded  with numbers from Germany and France. This makes this figure more predictable. Two months of rise were followed by a drop of 0.6% last time. A rise this time is important for the Euro. A rise of 0.6% is predicted.
  5. Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet isn’t expected to move the interest rate. Yet again, for the 8th month in a row, the European Minimum Bid Rate is predicted to remain at 1%. As in previous cases, the focus will shift to the ECB Press Conference, where Mr. Trichet may lay out the policy for 2010, and may hint a possible timing for a rate hike, now that prices stopped falling in the Euro-zone. The press conference will take place at 13:30 GMT.
  6. German WPI: Published on Friday at 7:00 GMT. This is the first inflation indicator in a week full with such figures. The continent’s largest economy has printed a leap in  wholesale  prices after two months of drops. This is one of the signs that Europe is pulling out of deflation. A 0.4% rise is predicted this time.
  7. CPI: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. The last inflation release is the official and final one for the whole continent. The Consumer Price Index rose by an annualized rate of 0.5% in November and rose by 0.9% in December according to the initial print last week. This is expected to be confirmed this time. Core CPI is different: prices have been slowing down according to this figure, to an annualized rate of 1% last month, continuing a gradual drop throughout 2009.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The range of 1.42 to 1.4480 continues to dominate the pair. No change from last week. A failed attempt to breach 1.4480 was made at the beginning of the week. The low for this week was at 1.4257.

Looking up, the upper border of the range consists of two line: 1.4444 which was the resistance line in the summer, and 1.4480, which is now more important: EUR/USD didn’t go below this line after breaking upwards in September, and tested this line just now.

Above this range, 1.466 is a line that served as a support line when the Euro was trading higher. During November, EUR/USD was stuck in a different range, and 1.48 was the bottom border of it. Even higher, 1.5144 was the peak for 2009, and looks far at the moment.

Below, 1.42 serves as the bottom border of the current range, and will continue to serve as an important support line. Lower, 1.40 is a round number and worked as a stepping stone for the Euro as it went up.

Strongest support is found at 1.3750: this was an important support and resistance line during 2009.

I am bearish on EUR/USD

With American and European unemployment rates equal at 10%, Europe has no advantage, and a European rate hike seems unlikely in the near future. I see the range broken to the downside.

This popular pair receives many interesting reviews on the web. Here are some that I like:

  • Casey Stubbs analyzes the range and asks when it will break.
  • Mohammed Isah sees consolidation to the downside in force for this pair.
  • James Chen sees a potential inverted flag pattern.
  • The Geek Knows brings and in-depth review of EUR/USD and looks towards the new week.

Further reading:

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.