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Weekly Forex Forecasts

Forex Weekly Outlook – January 11-15

After a turbulent start to the year, the second week also provides may important events: retail sales and inflation figures in the US, key employment figures in Australia  and a rate decision in Europe are among the highlights this week. Let’s see what’s awaiting us in the wake of the NFP.

American Non-Farm Payrolls, the most important indicator, disappointed by posting 85,000 job losses. Still, there was one point of light – last month’s figure was revised to a gain jobs, the first in two years. All in all, the dollar, was hurt, but didn’t lose significant technical barriers. OK, let’s start with the new week:

Monday, January 11th: Swiss retail sales are the first major event of the day. French Industrial Production is expected to help the Euro.

In Canada, Housing Starts and Building Permits are to shake USD/CAD, after the employment report in Canada was weak. Most currencies will still trade by the Non-Farm Payrolls on this day.

Tuesday, January 12th: Australian Home Loans are an important release for Aussie traders. They’re expected to fall.

British Trade Balance is predicted to improve, but the Pound will need much more. Last week’s rate decision didn’t help the Pound.

Double feature Trade Balance in Canada and in the US is expected to show a higher American deficit and a higher Canadian surplus – pushing USD/CAD lower.

Wednesday, January 13th: British Manufacturing Production is expected to rise after a disappointment last time. The more interesting release in Britain is the NIESR GDP Estimate, which has proven accurate in the past. Did British recession finally end in Q4?

European Industrial Production is expected to rise after dropping last month. Also note French CPI.

The American Beige Book will give a broad look at the US economy. At the same time, the Federal Reserve Budget is expected to show a smaller deficit.

Japanese Core Machinery Orders are expected to recover from last month’s blow – a drop of 4.5%. Kiwi traders: notice the Building Consents published late in the evening.

Thursday, January 14th: Australian employment figures are predicted to be mixed – job gains on one hand and a rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.8% on the other hand. Australia enjoyed good numbers last week.

Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged. European Minimum Bid Rate is predicted to remain at 1%. Future prospects for a rate hike might be proposed: European inflation has picked finally picked up. On the other hand, European Unemployment Rate reached 10% – making a rate hike unlikely, at least until there’s improvement in the job market.

American Retail Sales posted nice gains last month, and pushed the US dollar higher. They’re now expected to rise but in a more moderate pace: 0.4% for Retail Sales and 0.3% for Core Retail Sales.

American Unemployment Claims are expected to remain almost unchanged after improving in recent weeks. Also note American Import Prices and Business Inventories. Both figures aren’t expected to move.

Friday, January 15th: Final European inflation numbers are due in Europe – where CPI and Core CPI are expected to reach a healthy 0.9% and 1% (respectively, annualized). These figures are based on the preliminary releases.

On the other side of the Atlantic, American CPI is predicted to edge up by 0.2% while Core CPI, no less important, is expected to rise by only 0.1%.

The preliminary Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan, a highly regarded survey, is expected to rise up to 73.9 points, pushing the dollar higher.

Also in the US: Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production are all predicted to rise.

That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll later post specific currency coverages.

Here they are:

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.