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Canadian Dollar Forecast, Minors

Canadian Dollar – February 7-11

Building Permits, Housing Starts and Trade Balance are the hot topics of this week. Here is an outlook on the market-movers ahead and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The Canadian dollar climbed higher against its U.S. dollar on Feb 2 after hitting its highest level in two weeks and receiving signs that global economic recovery is gathering strength. Will the uprising in Egypt detain this recovery?

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:USD/CAD Chart - February 7-11

  1. Building Permits: Monday, 13:30. Canadian building permits decreased by 11.2% from 6.2% decrease in the prior month. The considerable drop was due to lower construction for residential homes. This was the second monthly decrease in a row mainly attributed to British Columbia. An increase of 2.9% is expected now.
  2. Housing Starts: Tuesday, 13:15 Canadian housing starts also plunged by a greater-than-expected 13.5 percent in December reaching 168,000, mainly because of a drop in construction of multi dwelling buildings. A modest rise of 171K is expected now.
  3. NHPI: Thursday, 13:30. The Canada New Housing Price Index is a part of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures changes in prices for new homes. The Index increased by 0.3% in November after a 0.1% rise in October, for a fourth consecutive gain. Toronto, Oshawa and Ottawa-Gatineau were most responsible for the NHPI rise. The index has been on a steady rise since July 2009 with only one monthly decline since then. A further increase of 0.6% is forecasted.
  4. Governor John Murray speaks: Thursday, 18:30. BOC Deputy Governor John Murray is due to speak at the Institute of Public Administration of Canada in Regina where he is likely to discuss the problem Canada’s strong currency and current account deficit.
  5. Trade Balance: Friday, 13:30. The International Merchandise Trade deficit shrank unexpectedly to $0.08B in November following $1.48B in the previous month. Analysts had expected a further increase of $1.90B in deficit. The November balance indicates that net exports will provide a significant contribution to growth in the fourth quarter of 2010. Trade deficit  is expected to widen to -0.4B this time.

All times are GMT.

USD/CAD  Technical  Analysis

The Canadian dollar gained against the US dollar throughout the week, and dipped under 0.9930 (discussed last week) before making an attempt to dig lower and closing at 0.9868.

Looking up, 0.9930 provides immediate resistance after working as support earlier. It was the low point in 2010. Above, 0.9977 is a minor resistance line on the way up.

Above, USD/CAD parity is the obvious line of resistance, working in both directions in the past few months. It’s followed by 1.0060, the highest level in the past month or so.

Higher, 1.0140 served as resistance in December and also as support in the past. It serves as immediate resistance. Above, 1.0280 also worked in both directions, being resistance recently.

Further above, the next line is    1.05. It capped the pair twice during the summer and is the next minor line of resistance.  The strong 1.0680 capped the pair during July and August, for more than one day in each attempt to break higher.

Looking down, 0.9840 proved to be a strong line of support – a double bottom cushioning a fall. 0.98, which was a line of strong support back in 2008 is very close by.

Even lower, 0.97, which had the same role at around 2008 is another strong line. There aren’t many lines until the all-time low of 0.9056 back in November 2007.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

The rise in all commodity prices, the nice job gain in Canada and the improving US economy provide room for further gains for the Canadian dollar.

Further reading:

Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer