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AUD/USD Forecast, Minors

AUD/USD Outlook – June 20-24

The Aussie managed to finish a volatile week higher. The upcoming week consists of the meeting minutes as well as other events. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Worries about China have weighed on the Australian dollar, but the good situation in Australia still helped remain on high ground. Will this continue?

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:AUD USD Chart  June 20 24 2011

  1. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 00:30. The Melbourne Institute provides a comprehensive indicator for the economy, based on 9 other figures. After a rise of 0.5%, a smaller rise is likely now.
  2. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. The last rate decision in Australia was expected – no rate change. The accompanying statement wasn’t too clear, and left traders confused. So, the meeting minutes will provide important information about the future moves of the Aussie.
  3. CB Leading Index: Thursday, 00:00. Similar to the figure by MI, also the conference board provides a similar leading index. This one is based 7 indicators. It’s expected to tick up at a similar pace to last month’s 0.4% rise.
  4. Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 2:30. This important and independent purchasing managers’ indicator has shown a slowdown in recent months, and dropped to 51.6 points. This still means growth (above 50) but is slower than earlier. Another tick down is likely now.  As mentioned in the  interview with John Kicklighter, Australia depends a lot on the China and its current efforts to curb inflation.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

At the beginning of the week, the Aussie managed to climb higher and temporarily trade between 1.0670 and 1.0715, new lines that didn’t appear last week. The pair later fell, but managed to make a comeback, closing at 1.0622.

Technical levels, from top to bottom:

The  float era high of 1.1012 is already a definite line of resistance, just above the round number of 1.10.  1.0850 had a chance to work in both directions – capping the pair on the way up, and later temporary halting the pair on the way down. It proved to be quite strong just now and is of high importance.

1.0775 was a key resistance level in the past weeks, and it remains a very tough resistance line.  1.0715 capped the pair more than once in the past week, and also had the same role at the beginning of May.

1.0670 is a weak pivotal line. 1.0580 turns into strong resistance, after it was broken. It capped the pair for long days. Its role is minor now..  The round number of 1.05 managed to cushion the recent fall, and returns to be of importance..

1.0440 proved to be a very strong support line after being a swing low a few weeks ago and also just now.  1.0390 was a distinctive line that worked in both directions at the beginning of April and is weak support now.

A stepping stone for the Aussie on its way up was 1.0315.  It is likely to be a stepping stone on the way down if the pair collapses. An important cushion is 1.0254, the 2010 high that is still far behind.

I remain neutral on AUD/USD.

The slowdown in China casts a shadow over the still strong Australian economy. The key event is the meeting minutes. The high Australian interest rate has been a strong driver of the currency, and prospects about it will rock the Aussie.

Further reading:


Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.