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Minors, NZD/USD Forecast

NZD/USD Outlook – September 26-30

The  New Zealand dollar  tumbled down and returned to levels seen before it surged to all times highs.  Building Consents   and NBNZ Business Confidence are the major events this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

The biggest blow came from Operation Twist launched by Bernanke and the lack of QE3 in the US. Last week Current Account indicated growth in imports reaching a deficit of 0.92B and GDP growth narrowed to 0.1% following 0.9% increase in the previous month. Is the global economic situation drag down NZ economy?

NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD USD Chart  26 30 2011

  1. Trade Balance:  Sunday, 21:40. New Zealand narrowed its Trade balance surplus to NZ$129 million in July from NZ197 million in June. This reading was contrary to predictions of a NZ124 million deficit. The main reason for this surplus is expansion in exports. Nevertheless Analysts continue to be pessimistic forecasting a NZ315 million deficit.
  2. Building Consents: Thursday, 21:45. Building approvals jumped 13.0% in July after 1.0% decrease in the previous month indicating a positive long term trend for NZ economy. A smaller rise is predicted now.  
  3. NBNZ Business Confidence: Friday, 0:00 New Zealand business confidence decreased for the first time in five months reaching 34.4 from 47.6 in the previous month following grim scenarios in Europe and the US raising cautiousness in the market. A similar figure is expected now.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

The kiwi fell with a relatively small gap which it was able to close quickly. But when the downfall began, it was very painful, and it reached 0.7723 ( a new line that didn’t appear last week) before stabilizing.

Technical lines from top to bottom.

We start from a much lower line due to the circumstances. 0.8120 was a double bottom in September and also provided some support in June.The loss of this line paved the way for the downfall.  0.8080 was support back in June and is a minor line at the moment.

Below, 0.7975 was a long running peak and provided support back in May and in July. It was run through during the downfall. 0.7895 was minor support in May and is minor resistance now.

A more important line is 0.7820. It capped the pair three times, the lat being in January, and provided support in April. This is an area of struggle. 0.7755 was important support in May and managed to slow down the fall.

0.7723 is the swing low of the downfall and minor support now. Below, 0.7655 was significant resistance back in February and also in 2010 and is a strong line of support.

0.7550 provided support at the beginning of 2011 and also resistance afterwards. It is closely followed by minor support at 0.75.

The last line for now is far yet important: 0.7350. With recent sharp moves, anything can happen.

I am bearish on NZD/USD.

The kiwi seemed bearish and awaiting a rate hike. The global slowdown, especially in Asia, will probably keep the rate hike plans deep in the drawers and the pair is likely to further drop, alongside commodities and metals such as gold.

Further reading:

Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer