Home USD/CHF Outlook Dec. 12-16
Minors, USD/CHF Forecast

USD/CHF Outlook Dec. 12-16

The  Swiss franc  was up  slightly against  the dollar,  and  was at the 0.9250 level for most of the week.  The upcoming week has six important indicators, and  the market continues to closely watch the  latest developments in the  eurozone  debt crisis. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

Swiss economic growth slowed to  its lowest level in two years in the third quarter,  primarily due to  declines in exports and investment, and the global debt crisis. GDP, was up only 0.2 percent in the third quarter, significantly lower than  the  0.5 percent expansion in the second quarter.  

The ECB cut interest rates, but there was  no  real  relief  for the countries drowning in debt.

Updates: Europe fears rating downgrades and peripheral bond auctions. The greenback is strengthening and USD/CHF is higher, challenging 0.9330. The ongoing troubles in Europe, with big fears around Commerzbank, sent the pair to 0.9390 and some relief calmed it down before the Fed Meeting. SNB awaited in tension on Thursday. The Fed didn’t change policy and didn’t make new hints. This sent the dollar high up, and the Swissie continued behaving as a risk currency. USD/CHF jumps above 0.9450. The not-so-good Italian auction pushed the greenback higher. 0.9480 caps the pair. Traders expect the SNB to give a boost. The SNB did NOT intervene, and this sent EUR/USD plunging. USD/CHF also dropped sharply, from around 0.9540 to 0.94 before stabilizing.

USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Employment Level:  Monday, 8:15. The previous reading was a horrendous 2.77M, the lowest reading in over four years. The forecast for this month is virtually unchanged at 2.79M.
  2. SECO Economic Forecasts: Tuesday, 6:45. This respected  economic  forecast is published quarterly. It  focuses on a number of important economic items, such as GDP, employment and inflation.
  3. PPI: Wednesday, 8:15. The PPI (Production Price Index) has been in negative territory since June, but has been inching towards the zero level. The previous reading was -0.2%, and the market forecast for this month is unchanged.
  4. ZEW Economic Expectations: Wednesday, 10:00. This index is based on a survey of insitutional investors and analsyts,who are surveyed for their opinions on economic conditions in Switzerland for the next six months. The index has not been in positive territory since April. Last month’s reading was a dismal -64.3, down from the October reading of -54.4.
  5. Industrial Production: Thursday, 8:15. This indicator fluctuates wildly, and the markets have a hard time making accurate forecasts. Last month, the markets were on target,  as the actual reading was 3.6%, close to the forecast of 3.3%. The forecast for this month is sharply down to -0.7%. Will the markets again be correct with their prediction?
  6. SNB Monetary Policy Assessment: Thursday, 8:30.  Analysts and traders pay close attention the this economic forecast by the central bank. Interest rate policy will be a hot topic, with most analysts predicting that the central bank will will not raise interest rates, due to the weak economy.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

FIX:   Dollar/Swiss  opened the week at 0.9201. It  reached as high as 0.9296, but despite several attempts,  was unable to break the 0.9310 resistance level  (discussed last week) and closed  the week  at 0.9227.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

There is a resistance line at 0.9636. Next, 0.9479 is a strong resistance level. It is followed by 0.9370, which served as a tough line of resistance back in February and was also approached in April. It is strong resistance.  0.9300,  which is a strong resistance level,  was under attack several times this week.

For support, 0.9227 is a minor support line. 0.9139 has provided a major support level for the past few weeks. 0.9081, which was a strong support level in mid-October, is again acting as support  for the pair.  Below,  0.9041 is a minor support line. The round number of 0.90 is  the next  important support level. It capped the pair on a recovery attempt in April and was an important separator in September. It will be tested on any  downwards move.

0.8950  has been a  strong support line, and the next support level is at the  round number of .8900.  The  final support line for now is 0.8781, which served as strong support in early November.

 I am  bullish on USD/CHF.

The Swiss economy is expected to head into a recession sometime next year, and Swiss interest rates are unlikely to rise in the near future. The  debt crisis in the eurozone continues to weigh on the franc.

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.